Bitcoin (BTC) traded 4.5% below the $74,000 high reached on Thursday, with traders conflicted over whether this level may have marked the local top for BTC price.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin charts still show similarities to the 2022 bear cycle, suggesting another leg down below $60,000 is possible.
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Others say the bottom is in and expect a breakout rally to $75,000–$80,000 to be next.
Is the 2022 BTC price cycle repeating?
BTC’s current technical structure, following the latest recovery from $60,000, shows similarities with the middle of past bear cycles.
Bitcoin’s latest rise to $74,000 came 149 days after its bull market peak of $126,000 reached in October 2025.
Related: Bitcoin ‘anomalous’ outflow sees 32K BTC leave exchanges in a single day
“$BTC made a local high around 140–150 days after its all-time high in the previous two cycles before pushing lower,” said analyst Bitcoin Hyper in an X post on Thursday.
Echoing this view, pseudonymous trader Bitcoin Isaiah called the rally to $74,000 a “perfect local top indicator,” pointing to premature celebrations by the bulls as a signal for further dumping.
The analyst referred to the 2022 cycle, when similar euphoria preceded a 68% crash from $48,200 to $15,500, suggesting that history could repeat with a revisit to sub-$60,000 levels.
Master of Crypto said that the brief pump above $70,000 was a liquidity trap, wiping out both shorts and longs before targeting lower zones between $62,000-$65,000 where more ask-orders are located, adding:
“The price usually goes where the bigger money sits.”
As Cointelegraph reported, signs of a pullback emerged this week after the rally to $74,000, namely a classic bearish chart pattern and major overhead resistance.
Is Bitcoin’s relief rally over?
The bulls, however, argue that $60,000 was the likely market bottom, marking a structural shift.
For example, crypto analyst Bitcoin Munger said the 2022 Bitcoin bear fractal was not a “reason to be bearish” because this cycle is different.
An accompanying chart showed that while the 2022 drawdown saw the price “cut through” the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), the current only retested the trend line and bounced.
Meanwhile, analyst Mister Crypto says the BTC/USD pair is breaking out of an ascending triangle with the expectation of a “strong move to the upside,” if the upper trend line at $70,000 holds as support.
Other differences from the 2022 cycle include strong institutional ETF inflows and tightening supply, which may help Bitcoin avoid another crash and set it up for a rally to $75,000-$80,000.
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