The Colombian peso recorded some volatility today against the dollar although it didn’t experience significant movements after the release of disappointing data on consumer confidence, retail sales, and industrial production.
Consumer confidence remains negative, reflecting public concerns about economic stability although it improved slightly to -12.7 points in June from -14.1 points in May. Industrial production recorded a 3.6% contraction after a one-off improvement in April.
The decline in retail sales worsened, decreasing by 1.7% compared to 1.6% in April. The disappointing data could weigh on the Colombian Peso.
However, the currency has been climbing against the dollar since late June and could remain on a bullish trend in particular as bets of softer US monetary policy continue to increase. The Federal Reserve could move to lower its interest rates and could leave the dollar with less support against the peso.
The currency could also benefit from improved economic forecasts. The National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF) has revised its economic forecast to the upside, predicting growth of 1.7% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025.
