What will Trump do next? Four policies that could reshape the US economy – London Business News | London Wallet

A leading expert on US business and investment has outlined the quartet of policies which could form the bedrock of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Entrepreneur James Disney-May, a British businessman and investor, based in New York, outlined his advice as the clock ticks down to Mr Trump’s inauguration.

Strategic advisor and US business expert James, who specialises in SaaS investment believes policies around deregulation, tax-cutting, tariffs and immigration will dominate Trump’s economic strategy.

Here, James outlines his take on what Trump Will Do Next:

Deregulation

“Trump’s audacious goal to remove ten regulations for every new one resonated strongly with businesses eager to operate with fewer constraints. Historical precedents lend some credence to this approach; a study of state regulation in the 1990s found that lighter regulation in the US led to greater economic growth in comparison to the EU’s more interventionist framework.

Corporate America is already preparing for a less restrictive landscape. Over 100 trade associations have submitted proposals advocating for deregulation, targeting areas such as LNG exports, nuclear energy, and FDA food traceability requirements. For investors and entrepreneurs, the prospect of a “risk-on” environment creates opportunities in sectors such as financial services, cryptocurrency, energy, and technology. Meanwhile, The London Stock Exchange may lose more companies to New York, drawn by the appeal of lighter regulatory hurdles, further reinforcing the US as a global financial hub.

However, deregulation is not without its risks. Looser rules could trigger environmental or safety concerns and potentially test public tolerance for unchecked capitalism. Balancing free enterprise and safeguarding public interests will be a key challenge for policymakers. For investors and entrepreneurs, the allure of growth opportunities must be balanced with an awareness of potential backlash.

Tax Cutting

Trump’s proposal to slash the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% marks an ambitious bid to stimulate investment and boost job creation. For small businesses and entrepreneurs, the prospect of extended individual and estate tax cuts, alongside potential reductions in taxes on overtime pay could unlock significant financial flexibility.

Targeted incentives for sectors such as AI, green energy, and biotech could accelerate innovation, potentially driving transformative breakthroughs. Venture capitalists are excited by the prospect of capital gains tax relief for startup investments, which would inject fresh capital into early-stage companies and boost the US’s leadership in emerging technologies.

However, managing fiscal constraints and navigating a politically divided Congress remain significant challenges. For investors and entrepreneurs, the immediate benefits are compelling – cheaper capital, higher valuations, and a resurgent stock market.

Tariffs

Trump’s tariff strategy is bold and unpredictable. The proposal to impose a 10% baseline tariff on imports and raise duties on Chinese goods by up to 60% have sent shockwaves through global supply chains. Plans to target components for EVs have reportedly forced manufacturers to consider the relocation of production to minimise disruption. Industries such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, particularly in export-reliant economies like Germany face heightened risks.

The broader economic consequences depend on Trump’s ability to navigate legal and legislative constraints. Leveraging the Trade Act of 1974 to justify China-specific tariffs or invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 for universal duties would push the boundaries of executive authority. Investors and entrepreneurs should prepare for short-term volatility but position themselves for a potential long-term realignment in global trade flows. This shift may create significant challenges but also unlock new opportunities for strategic players in the evolving landscape.

Immigration

Immigration has long been a contentious issue in US politics. Under Trump’s leadership it could take a pivotal turn with profound economic consequences. A shift towards a more business-friendly immigration policy focused on attracting skilled labour could be transformative. Sectors such as technology, biotech and engineering, which depend heavily on high-skilled immigrants would benefit from more accessible visa programmes like H-1Bs and streamlined green card processes. Such measures could address labour shortages, boost innovation, and drive growth in knowledge-intensive sectors.

However, Trump’s proposed mass deportations – potentially impacting 15-20 million workers – poses significant risks of economic disruption. Such measures could exacerbate labour shortages in key industries such as agriculture and construction, while triggering upward pressure on wages and inflation. This scenario could potentially increase the risk of stagflation – a mix of slow growth and rising prices. For investors and entrepreneurs, stagflation and potential market volatility could reduce risk appetite. Conversely, a pivot toward policies that attract global talent would signal growth opportunities in innovation-driven industries.