Several U.S. companies could win big if a TikTok shutdown goes into effect Sunday, according to Morgan Stanley. Research into beneficiaries comes amid reports that TikTok is preparing to shutter its app in the U.S. on Jan.19 in response to a federal ban slated to go into effect. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments last week over the future of the company and whether legislation signed last year forcing parent ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a ban violates free speech protections in the U.S. Constitution. META 1Y mountain Meta shares over the past year Limits or a ban on TikTok presents opportunities for some U.S.-based companies, with Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak viewing Meta Platforms as the main beneficiary given its strong user base, data and distribution that’s poised to improve with new use cases. “Every 10% of TikTok’s U.S. time META captures would likely add ~$0.30-$0.60 to our ~$30 ’26 EPS….depending on monetization level,” Nowak estimates, which could add as much as 9% to 2026 eps estimates. Meta Platforms isn’t the only beneficiary. Alphabet’ s YouTube could see some upside, with Morgan Stanley estimating that every 10% of time taken from TikTok could drive $400 million to $750 million in additional revenue. That could equate to a 1% to 2% increase in 2026 YouTube ad revenues. Beyond the largest competitors, Nowak also views Snapchat parent company Snap as well as Pinterest as likely winners. Nowak projects that every 10% of time funneled into Snap could boost advertising revenue by 7% to 15%. To gain this tail wind, however, these companies would need to improve performance and demonstrate solid returns on advertising spending. APP 1Y mountain AppLovin shares over the past year Nowak also referenced advertising software companies AppLovin and Trade Desk as beneficiaries, citing their recent momentum. AppLovin posted its best year on record in 2024, soaring 713%. “Said another way, TikTok’s ban may increase the ramp in which RDDT , APP, and TTD grow their structural number of advertisers and spend per advertiser,” Nowak said, referring to Reddit as another potential winner from TikTok’s woes.
