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This software stock can outperform in a tech rebound. Using options to trade it

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
April 15, 2025
in Investing
This software stock can outperform in a tech rebound. Using options to trade it
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After a historic correction — remarkable both in its speed and severity — the market is finally showing signs of stabilization and a clear bottoming process. This turnaround coincided with President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs, followed by a reversal on planned tariffs for smartphones, chips and electronics. These policy shifts were the key catalysts the market needed to regain footing and mark the end of the correction. As we bounce off the lows, it’s no surprise that the tech sector, which led the market downward, is now emerging as a leading force in the recovery. While several tech names are reflecting this rebound, the stock that I have picked out for this trade is Autodesk (ADSK) . Throughout this downturn, I’ve consistently pointed out some straightforward technical indicators to help identify when a correction is likely over — and ADSK is now showing those same signals: MACD (5,13,5) Because the standard MACD is a lagging indicator, I’ve introduced the idea of using a short-term MACD to generate faster entry signals. A bullish MACD crossover — where the MACD line crosses above the signal line — can serve as an early cue to begin building positions. However, since a faster MACD is more responsive to price fluctuations, it can also be more prone to noise and false signals. That’s why trade management becomes critical. The general rule of thumb is to exit the trade if the MACD crosses back down, signaling that momentum may be reversing. In ADSK’s case, we observed a MACD crossover on April 9, which acted as an early entry signal. This move was further supported by the RSI climbing out of oversold territory, offering a stronger confirmation that a trend reversal may be underway. MACD (12,26,9) We also saw a MACD crossover on the traditional MACD occur on April 10. The standard MACD is widely used by market technicians to gauge longer-term trend shifts. While it’s inherently slower to react — being a lagging indicator — it tends to be more reliable, generating fewer false signals compared to faster, more sensitive versions. That said, no indicator is foolproof. It’s always important to contextualize technical signals within the broader macroeconomic backdrop, especially during earnings season, when volatility and surprises can override even the most well-formed technical setups. Price action Even if you set aside all technical indicators and focus solely on price action, the chart tells a compelling story. A clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows has emerged, offering additional confirmation that ADSK is now in a bullish trend. The trade setup: ADSK 260-265 Bull Call Spread To take advantage of a potential move higher in ADSK, I’m using a bull call spread options strategy. With the stock currently trading near $260, the trade is structured by buying the $260 call and selling the $265 call as a single position. If ADSK closes at or above $265 by May 9th, the trade will generate a 100% return on the capital at risk. This approach allows me to participate in the upside while keeping the risk and reward clearly defined. Here is my exact trade setup: Buy $260 call, May 9 expiry Sell $265 call, May 9 expiry Cost: $250 Potential Profit: $250 I explore many such setups in depth in my book, Mean Reversion Trading , and hundreds of trade examples on my website https://tradingextremes.com . -Nishant Pant Founder: https://tradingextremes.com Author: Mean Reversion Trading YouTube, Twitter: @TheMeanTrader Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited! DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.

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