Lower overall shipping forecasts due to tariffs has Wells Fargo moving to the sidelines on UPS stock. “We see elevated risk to volume from tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis exemption,” analyst Christian Wetherbee wrote in a Tuesday note. “Both FedEx and UPS also face execution risk as they adjust their networks.” The analyst downgraded the shipping stock and economic bellwether to equal weight from overweight, and slashed his price target to $98 per share from $120. Wells Fargo’s forecast now implies ust 1.8% upside from Monday’s $96.25 close. Shares of UPS have pulled back nearly 24% in 2025. UPS YTD mountain UPS stock in 2025. Wetherbee said his expectation for a decline in shipping volume is a result of both the outsized tariffs on China from President Donald Trump, as well as Trump’s executive order earlier this month closing the de minimis trade loophole. The omission allows parcels valued less than $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free. “Elevated Chinese tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis exemption is likely to weigh on US volume and for UPS in particular may drive some network de-leveraging which could hurt margins,” the analyst said. “Parcel multiples are depressed, and we believe uncertainty will keep pressure on in the medium-term,” the analyst said of overall shipping. “Multiples likely mirror levels seen in 2019 when freight felt the impacts from Trump’s first tariffs. Further, we are less confident in estimates as there remains considerable economic risk.” Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
