We last wrote about Spotify on Oct. 22 just before the stock broke to all-time highs. SPOT is higher by about 75% since then, and we see the technicals and fundamentals of the stock as constructive. We’re gearing up to add to our position here. In October, we observed the chart consolidating below the 2021 highs of $389, anticipating a move to record levels. Last year was significant for the company. as it swung from a GAAP four-quarter loss in the prior year to a profit. Looking ahead to 2026, analysts are looking for 85.66% growth to $10.57 per share. Despite the broader market volatility in 2025 from tariffs and a credit downgrade, SPOT continues to show incredible relative strength and is simply consolidating at the range highs around $660. We are targeting a move to Fibonacci projection resistance shown in blue at $860 in 2025. Moving down to the daily chart, we see price action in 2025 that includes two volatile drops below $500. However, the buyers snapped up this name pushing right back towards all-time highs amid the bumpy and volatile trade of the year. First-quarter results missed analyst expectations, but a dive into the quarterly financials show the miss was driven by greater expenses tied to payroll taxes associated with employee salaries and benefits. The results were also impacted by a shift in the timing of equity grants from Q1 to Q2. These are likely to have a temporary impact on the bottom line — while the long-term growth story streams ahead. This indicates there is an underlying strength to the company, despite the 62 times 2025 earnings valuation ($660 / $10.57 GAAP) earnings. Looking out to 2026, however the valuation is a bit more reasonable at 50 times earnings for a company that is consistently growing top line revenues — and is maximizing bottom line earnings by efficiently using capital. In Q1, Spotify demonstrated improved margins generating $534 million in free cash flow, 158% Y/Y growth, and 17.7% return on invested capital (ROIC). At the heart of this growth story is a steady increase in monthly active users, as well as investment in AI-driven features to power individualized content for users. At the end of 2024, Spotify launched its Spotify Partner Program to incentive creators to come to the platform and share revenues aiming to compete with YouTube. Considering the major jump Spotify has with podcasts, I expect them to pursue this aggressively while Google is coming under attack from multiple angles. In our Active Opps portfolio, we hold a 5.12% allocation. After publishing this article I’m going to increase the holding up to around 7% of the portfolio. -Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC We offer active portfolio management and regular subscriber updates like the idea presented above. DISCLOSURES: Gordon owns SPOT personally and in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
