Ville Helenius has redefined the game in major programme delivery. His Oxford research entitled Programme Management Methods and Programme Performance: The Role of the Cost of Rework, reveals a sharp, data‑driven rule: use Agile where rework costs little, Waterfall where it costs a more.
Why it matters
Major programmes—from banking transformation to infrastructure—persistently underperform. Yet managers lack a reliable method to choose between Agile and Waterfall beyond gut feel. Helenius fills that gap by linking decision‑making to the cost of rework.
The evidence
- Sample: 46 programme managers, spanning 230 historical and hypothetical programmes, including global banks, IT, energy and M&A setings
- Key finding: Agile works best for non-physical, low‑rework tasks (e.g. software), while Waterfall excels in high‑rework physical projects (e.g. construction).
- Statistical support: Successful programmes showed a strong correlation between method‑context alignment and improved performance metrics such as cost, schedule and stakeholder satisfaction.
Introducing ProMeSe
Helenius distils his findings into the Programme Method Selection (ProMeSe) framework—a decision aid that matches delivery method to the type of deliverable and rework cost:
- Planning/design phases: Agile suits low‑risk, non‑physical output.
- Implementation phases: Waterfall preferred for irreversible, high‑cost rework items.
The Programme Method Selection (ProMeSe) framework
(c) 2018-2025 Ville-Valtteri Helenius
What practitioners are saying
Interviews with participants confirmed strong resonance:
“Waterfall methodology… where re‑work is costly”; “Agile works with software as the work is not irreversible.”
Programme managers appreciate cost‑based decision gates – even if they don’t always apply them in reality.
Practical takeaways
- Smart method matchingbased on rework cost reduces overruns and raises satisfaction scores.
- Applicable across sectors: from finance to energy transition, where clarity and cost control are vital – especially for regulatory or safety‑critical deployments.
- Particularly valuable for large‑scale transformations, where complexity and stakes are high.
Bottom line
Ville Helenius injects real-world rigor into Agile vs Waterfall decisions – showing that success is not about one-size-fits-all, but right-method‑for‑right‑context. Programme leaders will find ProMeSe a smart tool for better delivery executions.
About the Researcher
Ville Helenius is a Strategic Programme Leader with over 20 years of experience in senior strategy and transformational change delivery. He holds an MEng in Electronic Engineering from University College London, dual MBA degrees from London Business School and Columbia Graduate School of Business, and completed his MSc in Major Programme Management at Oxford University with Distinction. Ville has led strategic change initiatives at organisations including Deutsche Bank, ING, Royal Bank of Canada, and Deloitte. His expertise spans banking, wealth management, asset management, and energy transition initiatives.
