As party conference season hots up, with all main parties apart from Reform hosting their events over the next few weeks, Opinium’s latest polling reveals that Nigel Farage’s party currently leads in terms of voting intention.
Reform is currently on 31% (+1 on a fortnight ago) of the vote, followed by Labour 22% (-1), the Conservatives 17% (-1), and the Liberal Democrats 12% (n/c).
When looking at voting intention among those who voted Labour in the General Election in 2024, only 67% would pick Labour again, whilst 12% would now choose Reform, 6% Liberal Democrats, 6% the Green Party, and 2% would vote for the Conservatives.
Starmer’s approval rating slumps lower
Keir Starmer’s approval rating has suffered a further slump, dropping 2 points in the last fortnight to net -42%. This is joint with Rishi Sunak’s lowest score post-“D-Daygate” (net -42%) and almost near Boris Johnson’s net -44% after his government collapsed.
Perhaps more damningly, 2024 Labour voters only just give him a net positive rating, with 39% disapproving of the job he is doing while 41% approve.
Overall, just under a quarter (23%) still think Starmer would make the best Prime Minister – giving him a 9-point lead over Kemi Badenoch (13%). However, a majority (52%) now say neither leader would make the best Prime Minister.
Leadership change?
Just over half (54%) of UK adults now think Starmer should resign, including a third (34%) of 2024 Labour voters. By way of comparison, this is higher than the 45% who called for Sunak to resign in April 2024.
When asked about who would be the best replacement, Andy Burnham is the top pick (13%), followed by Wes Streeting (5%). Burnham has the highest net acceptability (+12 acceptable), with Streeting in second place (-4 acceptable).
Views on the Tory leadership
Looking at the Conservative leadership, just a third (33%) want Kemi Badenoch to resign – although this is higher than the proportion than want her to stay (27%). She has overall support among 2024 Conservative voters, with 48% saying she should stay and 29% thinking she should resign.
The public’s preferred successor James Cleverley (8%), who narrowly edges Robert Jenrick (on a similar 8%). All of the main contenders are viewed positively:
- Cleverly (net +5 acceptable as Conservative leader)
- Tugendhat (net +3 acceptable)
- Jenrick (net +2 acceptable)
- Mel Stride and Chris Phil both had high “don’t know” rates.
Priti Patel is the only candidate who is clearly deemed negative (net -14 acceptable).
Protests and politics
Following last weekend’s protests, the public has mixed opinions on attendees’ behaviour. Around a third (35%) thought the Unite the Kingdom rally was well-behaved, but 34% thought it was badly behaved. Palestine Action protests are seen roughly on par, with 28% thinking it was well-behaved compared to 29% thinking it was not well-behaved.
More than half (51%) disapprove of Elon Musk’s politics (19% approve), while 42% disapprove of Tommy Robinson’s politics (22% approve). Overall, Musk seen as a negative force in UK politics (47% negative vs 19% positive).
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said, “Unpopular for all but two months of his premiership, the prime minister’s approval ratings are scraping historic lows, and looking passable only thanks to Liz Truss.
“Few expect Keir Starmer to go anywhere anytime soon, but it’s a humbling place for a leader when most of the country wants them to resign.”
