Point one – The Budget will be big. To offset recent developments and policy u-turns, the Chancellor may need to raise about £20bn to be able to say that she’s on track to meet her fiscal rule of the current budget deficit being eliminated by 2029/30 (i.e. government spending, after stripping out public investment, will no longer be higher than tax receipts). To replace the “headroom” (or rainy day fund) of £10bn she had back at the last fiscal event in March, she’ll need to raise another £10bn. And she’s said she wants to increase that headroom – a rise to £20bn would require another £10bn to be raised. All in, the Budget may include policies that raise about £40bn.
