The world is barreling toward another record-breaking year of solar and wind deployment in 2025, says a new analysis from energy think tank Ember. If current trends continue, we could actually triple global renewable capacity by 2030 – but only if governments catch up to what’s already happening on the ground.
Ember’s latest global analysis, which utilizes solar and wind data through September, projects that 793 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity will be added in 2025. That’s an 11% bump from the 717 GW added in 2024 – and it builds on a blistering pace: renewable capacity grew 22% in 2023 and 66% in 2022.
Solar continues to do the heavy lifting, followed by wind. Solar capacity is forecast to grow 9% in 2025, while wind is expected to jump 21%. And China is way ahead of everyone – it’s expected to install 66% of the world’s new solar and 69% of new wind next year.
That rapid pace means the world doesn’t have to continually increase new capacity at breakneck speeds to meet the 2030 tripling target agreed upon at COP28. Ember says additions only need to keep rising by about 12% every year between 2026 and 2030. Compare that to the 29% average annual growth from 2023 to 2025, and it feels pretty doable.
So what’s the problem?
As UN’s COP30 climate conference kicks off in Brazil, government targets aren’t keeping up. Right now, national plans only point toward a little more than doubling renewable capacity by 2030 – nowhere near tripling. Since 2022, global government targets for 2030 have only crept up 8%. China raised its target based on its 2025 climate plan, but the US target declined, keeping the global sum flat at 7.8 terawatts (TW).
“Deployment has accelerated far faster than governments had expected,” says Ember energy analyst Katye Altieri. “Renewables are booming, led by solar. But unless countries urgently update their targets, we risk underbuilding the grids, flexibility, and storage required to support this extraordinary growth.”
Even if clean energy is rocketing ahead, clear targets still matter – they tell utilities, companies, and grid operators the amount to prepare for. With fewer than five years to go, this is the chance for governments to catch up to reality and lock in the systems needed to manage this massive surge in solar and wind.
Read more: FERC: For two years straight, solar leads new US power capacity
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