Crude oil prices were under pressure today, extending this week’s downside bias as the market digested the potential for geopolitical de-escalation and structural oversupply.
WTI prices were trading below USD 58 per barrel, down roughly 2% intraday and set for weekly losses of more than 3%.
The emergence of a Russia-Ukraine peace framework could weigh on the oil market as the prospect of future normalisation of Russian crude exports tempered the impact of new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Higher Russian oil exports could also add to the current oversupply narrative. However, a failed deal could help lift oil prices.
At the same time, fundamentals remain bearish. While US crude inventory data was mixed, the IEA projects a surplus of about 4 mb/d in 2026 driven by strong non-OPEC supply growth, which could continue to drive downside risks for oil. A firmer US dollar and fading hopes of an immediate Fed rate cut add to the pressure.
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