The Tesla Cybertruck program is in shambles. The latest data indicate production is running at roughly 10% of its planned capacity. Meanwhile, the Ford F150 Lightning outsold the Tesla Cybertruck in 2025 and was then canceled for not selling enough.
Is this what is coming for the Cybertruck?
Tesla is actively trying to hide its Cybertruck sales performance. We have to do the math ourselves.
Unlike virtually every other automaker that reports sales by model and region, Tesla bundles its vehicles into two broad categories: “Model 3/Y” and “Other Models.”
The “Other Models” category includes the Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, and the Tesla Semi.
Model S and Model X sales have been relatively stable at a low volume, typically hovering around 5,000 to 6,000 units combined per quarter globally. If we assume a generous 6,000 units for S and X in Q4 2025 (aided by a slight update), that leaves only roughly 5,600 units for the Cybertruck and Semi combined.
Considering the Semi is still in pilot production with negligible volume, we are looking at roughly 5,500 for the entire quarter globally (though it is still mostly North American).
This is a disaster compared to the truck’s peak and the company’s stated capacity.
We previously reported in July that Tesla confirmed Cybertruck sales were down to ~5,000 units in Q2 2025. It seems the “recovery” never happened, despite price cuts and the introduction of a short-lived, cheaper trim.
For the full year 2025, it could bring the total to about 21,500 Cybertrucks globally.
According to 2025 full-year data, the Ford F-150 Lightning delivered approximately 27,300 units in the US.
Think about that for a second. Ford officially announced it was ending F-150 Lightning production in December to pivot to its new EREV (extended-range electric vehicle) strategy. Yet, even as a “lame duck” product with widely publicised retirement plans, the Lightning still managed to find more buyers than Tesla’s Cybertruck.
While Ford’s sales dipped about 18% year-over-year as they wound down the program, Tesla’s numbers crashed by nearly 50% despite the company doing everything it can to keep the program alive.
Tesla and Elon Musk have thrown everything at the Cybertruck program, and it’s not working. They released a cheaper stripped-down version and canceled it months later because it wasn’t selling.
Last quarter, Musk even had his private company SpaceX buy over 1,000 Cybertrucks, which is about 20% of Tesla’s quarterly Cybertruck sales, and sales were still down more than 50% year-over-year in the quarter.
What happens with the Cybertruck from here?
Electrek’s Take
SpaceX can’t keep buying Cybertrucks, and I don’t know of any vehicle program that sells at 10% of its production capacity and survives.
It’s such a big hill to climb.
As I previously said, I think if Tesla were to distance itself from Musk’s toxic brand and do things such as give up on the 4680 cells, which appear to have contributed to the Cybertruck being more expensive and having a shorter range than originally announced, it could likely significantly boost Cybertruck sales.
Enough to fill production capacity? Probably not, but it could get a lot closer.
Short of that, I don’t know where this can go. I think most other automakers would have written enough the program already, but Musk can’t because of his ego. It would be admitting defeat.
It shows just how much he has changed in the last few years (beyond the obvious white-nationalist stuff), as Musk originally said Tesla would pivot to a more traditional design if the Cybertruck failed. It has failed. Now what?
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