Tesla is once again telling customers that the window to transfer their Full Self-Driving (FSD) package to a new vehicle is closing at the end of the quarter. While the automaker is framing this as the “last” chance, the history of this program suggests it is being used more as a quarterly demand lever than a hard deadline.
But how does the move to “subscription only” play into this?
The ‘Last’ Window?
According to customer communications, Tesla is notifying owners that the current FSD transfer opportunity will end this quarter. This would presumably force owners who have paid up to $15,000 for the software package to buy it again if they upgrade to a new Tesla after the deadline.
Tesla is encouraging existing Tesla owners with the FSD package to upgrade to a new car before March 31st, 2026 to take advantage of what it claims will be the last FSD transfer window.
This is a song we have heard many times.
Tesla first introduced the FSD transfer program in Q3 2023. At the time, CEO Elon Musk was adamant that it was a “one-time amnesty.” He told investors and customers to take advantage of it immediately because it would not happen again.
Then, Tesla brought it back. And brought it back again. And again.
In fact, the “one-time” offer has been renewed so many times over the last few years that it has effectively become a recurring end-of-quarter sales incentive. Every time Tesla needs to boost delivery numbers, the “limited time” transfer window miraculously reopens.
The End of Ownership
This “final” transfer window takes on a significantly heavier weight when you consider Tesla’s announcement last week that it will stop selling FSD as a one-time option. Starting next month, FSD becomes subscription-only. That means this isn’t just the last chance to transfer the software; it’s likely the last chance to secure a perpetual license on a new vehicle, period.
Again, if you believe Tesla this time.
If true, it would mean that even though Tesla hasn’t delivered on what it sold to customers with the FSD package, unsupervised autonomous driving, you might lose the opportunity to transfer it to a new car unless you do it now.
Does that make sense?
Electrek’s Take
Of course it doesn’t, which is why FSD transfer will undoubtedly come back.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Tesla is using its own failure to deliver on a promise as a demand lever.
The only reason FSD transfers are even a discussion is that Tesla sold customers a “Full Self-Driving” package years ago that still cannot drive the car without supervision. If Tesla had delivered the Level 4-5 autonomy it promised back in 2016, the software would be tied to the car as an appreciating asset (as Musk also claimed), and this wouldn’t be an issue.
Instead, loyal customers are stuck with a license for software that hasn’t been delivered. When they want to upgrade to a newer car, perhaps one with the latest hardware more capable of running better software, Tesla holds their $15,000 investment hostage.
By repeatedly threatening to close the transfer window, Tesla creates artificial urgency. They are effectively saying, “Buy a new car now, or we will wipe out the $15,000 credit you gave us for a product we haven’t finished building.”
It is a cynical sales tactic. The right thing to do would be to permanently link the FSD purchase to the user’s account, allowing them to transfer it to any new Tesla until the company actually delivers the unsupervised self-driving capability it sold them.
Until then, treat every “last chance” announcement with the skepticism it deserves. It’s not about a deadline; it’s about a demand trigger.
The subscription model changes nothing on that front.
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