Carter Jonas has unveiled its 2026 residential sales market outlook, offering a fresh look at trends, forecasts, and what buyers and sellers can expect over the year ahead.
The estate agency says the property sales market over the next 12 months will be guided by a few practical factors, with affordability, buyer confidence, and ease of transaction set to drive a steadier year of activity.
The company identifies the lending environment as the most immediate influence on the market, while broader confidence and planned transaction reforms are also expected to shape buyer behaviour through 2026.
In the near term, mortgage availability and rates are likely to have the biggest impact. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has recently encouraged lenders to refine affordability checks, including easing stress tests and potentially allowing higher loan-to-income (LTI) ratios. These changes could gradually improve access to mortgage finance, particularly for first-time buyers, supporting activity in the year ahead.
Lisa Simon, head of residential at Carter Jonas, said: “The big story of 2026 could be thresholds. Affordability has been the number one gatekeeper, but the good news is that wage growth has outpaced house prices over the past year, which is quietly improving affordability for many households. Despite challenges like the phasing out of Help to Buy and some high‑value owners pausing ahead of the 2028 High-Value Council Tax surcharge, we’re starting to see the conditions for a more positive stance.”
Looking at the next 12 months, it is also widely expected that there will be at least one further official interest rate cut which would clearly help reduce the cost of borrowing. This movement will improve overall affordability and encourage a wider cohort of prospective buyers into homeownership.”
Simon continued: “When costs feel manageable rather than prohibitive, decisions come off pause and that shift, even if gradual, can turn ‘not yet’ into ‘let’s go’.”
More generally, economic and political stability always improves consumer confidence. Increased certainty whether it be domestic stability or even wider global geopolitical issues which will hopefully ease over the next year, will encourage people to make larger financial commitments such as buying and selling homes. Improvement in this area will stimulate market activity and transaction volumes.
“What we’ve seen in 2025 is a cautious market that contributed to a ‘wait and see’ approach for months,” Simon commented. “People want to move – the appetite is there- but they need to feel the ground is stable beneath them. For most households confidence comes when surprises stop. When people sense predictability across borrowing costs, lending decisions and timelines, confidence to commit rebounds.”
Government proposals currently under consultation aim to reform and expedite the home buying and selling process. These changes are mainly focused on speeding up transactions and reducing the rate of fall-throughs. Anything which will help facilitate smoother, quicker and less onerous transactional administration will certainly give households increased confidence to buy and sell homes and this could therefore stimulate activity.
Simon explained: “Speed is attractive but certainty matters more. If reforms can reduce the rate of fall-throughs and add some predictability to timescales, that fundamentally changes the psychology of moving. People are far more willing to commit when they believe the transaction will complete.”
The long-term health of the housing market fundamentally relies on addressing the persistent supply issues. While resolving the complex challenges facing the construction and building sector requires extensive action, progress on recommendations, such as those from the new towns taskforce, would represent a positive step toward increasing the rate of new home completions.
Simon added: “The housing market is still feeling the void left by the end of Help to Buy. The sharp decline in new-build sales over the last few years has directly contributed to the current stagnation in construction, a trend that negatively impacts everything from the supply chain to local employment. A new initiative designed to boost demand at the entry-level would serve as a vital catalyst, stimulating both housebuilding and the broader economy and we would be very supportive of this.”
