Bitcoin Bets On Polymarket Signal Sharp 2026 Downside Risk

Prediction markets have turned more bearish on Bitcoin, after a weekend sell-off briefly pushed prices below $75,000 on Monday.

On Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $65,000 in 2026 climbed to 72% on Monday, with almost $1 million in volume.

Other large wagers included bets on BTC dropping below $55,000 and reclaiming $100,000 by year-end, with implied probabilities of 61% and 54%, respectively.

The surge in downside bets signals a sentiment reversal. The market has erased gains made during President Donald Trump’s November 2024 election win.

The decline also marked a notable moment for Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder, as prices fell below its average purchase cost for the first time since late 2023.

Bear market, US liquidity squeeze cited as traders search for reasons behind sell-off

Some analysts have attributed the latest crypto sell-off to a broader bearish Bitcoin trend. CryptoQuant reiterated that a bear market has been in place since November 2025, when Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average.

“Don’t try to find bottoms after a new leg down,” CryptoQuant head of research, Julio Moreno, said in an X post on Saturday, adding: “Bear market bottoms take months to form.”

Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan said Bitcoin was not designed to rise in price, calling that a secondary effect rather than its core purpose.

“Its main use case is to provide a form of money that is independent of governments and banks,” Greenspan wrote on X on Monday.

Separately, Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal linked the downturn to tight US liquidity conditions rather than crypto-specific factors.

A potential drop of Bitcoin below $65,000 this year could run counter to forecasts from major investment firms and banks.

Late last year, Grayscale Investments predicted Bitcoin could surpass all-time highs of $126,000 by June 2026, citing institutional demand and clearer US regulation.

Related: Bitcoin’s price may have seen ‘deepest pullback’ at $77K: Analyst

Standard Chartered and Bernstein projected Bitcoin would reach $150,000 in 2026, though both had revised earlier, higher targets amid slower inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The news came amid Polymarket facing a Nevada court order blocking its event contracts as unlicensed wagering. Other states, including Tennessee, have also recently targeted the platform with enforcement actions.