A weak U.S. dollar that’s expected to soften further could mean it’s time for investors to look abroad for opportunities, according to Oppenheimer. The U.S. greenback has declined considerably over the last year, and posted wild moves just in the last month following an escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland and President Donald Trump’s indifferent remarks to the falling dollar. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index was last at 97.47, having slumped 10% over the last year. Ari H. Wald, chief market technician at Oppenheimer, expects that means it’s time to “buy global,” as emerging markets could benefit from a softer dollar that could lower debt loads — and have the added benefit of offering investors diversification in their portfolios. “A global portfolio provides diversification benefits because currency fluctuations lower correlations between US and non-US assets; diversification benefits diminish when currency exposure is hedged, because correlations rise,” Wald wrote on Friday. “When USD is weak, dollar-denominated global ETFs benefit US investors because stronger-currency constituents are translated back into weaker dollars, and emerging markets gain from lower debts costs and capital inflows,” he added. He pointed out that two opportunities in the Europe ETF (VGK) and the Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) have broken through their 2007 peaks, a bullish signal. The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) : The $31 billion ETF in the Europe equity space has gained 5% already this year, and is up more than 30% over the last 12 months. It’s attracted just $243 million in fund flows year to date. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) : The cap-weighted ETF with $27 billion in assets in emerging markets companies has already rallied 7% this year, and is up more than 38% over the past 12 moths. Year to date, it’s already attracted $4 billion in fund flows. EEM YTD mountain EEM, ytd performance To be sure, Wald stressed that buying global does not equate to the “Sell America” trade that a falling dollar was associated with over the last month, when the greenback fell alongside U.S. stocks and bonds. Indeed, the technician remains positive on U.S. equities, saying that U.S. multinationals in particular have become “tactically attractive.” “We stress that buying global doesn’t equate to selling the US,” Wald wrote. “The correlation between the dollar and US stocks has varied over time, and we think US equities continue to offer an attractive profile in the fourth year of this cycle.”
