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Britain is reviving Cold War-era contingency planning to prepare the country for a major conflict, as senior military figures warn that the risk environment facing the UK has hardened significantly in recent years.
Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, Chief of the Air Staff, said the Government was revisiting historic civil defence-style frameworks designed to ensure the state could function in the event of war, including coordinating military, police, health services, and critical industries.
“I think that’s right,” Sir Richard said when asked about the renewed focus on national-level preparedness, adding that modern resilience planning must take account of “a different threat environment” than during the Cold War.
The work, led by the Cabinet Office, is understood to involve updating elements of the historic “war book” planning, once used to guide the mobilisation of government and essential services during crises. Officials are said to be examining how such systems could be adapted for modern infrastructure, digital networks and supply chains.
Cold War-era planning documents — historically used to set out arrangements for rationing, hospital surge capacity, continuity of government and the protection of key infrastructure — were largely dismantled or absorbed into broader civil contingencies planning after East-West tensions ended.
Senior defence officials argue, however, that the return of state-on-state competition, cyber warfare and threats to undersea infrastructure has forced a reassessment of how Britain would sustain essential services during a major crisis.
The renewed focus is part of a wider effort to strengthen national resilience, including the protection of energy networks, water supplies, transport systems and communications infrastructure against conventional and hybrid threats.
Sir Richard said the armed forces were increasingly required to think beyond traditional battlefields, citing the vulnerability of critical national systems. “We need to think about the threat posed by an adversary acting above the threshold of war, not just a hybrid threat,” he said.
The remarks come as ministers prepare a long-term defence investment plan, with spending commitments expected to rise over the next decade. The Government has already signalled its ambition to increase defence spending beyond 2 per cent of GDP, though detailed funding pathways have yet to be published.
Former defence secretary Sir Ben Wallace has warned against what he described as potential “Treasury tricks” in accounting for future increases, urging ministers to ensure that any uplift in spending is fully funded and transparently delivered.
Defence Secretary John Healey has said he is seeking additional resources from the Treasury but has not confirmed when the 10-year plan will be published.
Industry figures say clarity is urgently needed to allow long-term investment in shipbuilding, munitions production and air defence systems, amid growing concern across NATO about stockpiles and readiness levels following the war in Ukraine.
The Cabinet Office declined to comment on the details of contingency planning but said the Government’s priority was ensuring the UK’s resilience against a “wide range of national security risks”.
Officials emphasised that the work is not a return to Cold War-style civil defence in its original form, but an attempt to modernise Britain’s preparedness architecture for a more complex threat landscape.
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