It’s a big week on Wall Street that could set the tone for the second half of the year. The latest reading on the U.S. consumer price index, a widely followed inflation gauge, is slated for release Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect CPI rose 4% in May on a year-over-year basis. That would be down from the 4.9% increase seen in April. Wall Street will pore through the numbers in search for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep rates steady after this week’s meeting concludes Wednesday. However, most investors are still uncertain on where the central bank takes rates later this year. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2023 Given this backdrop, traders at JPMorgan broke down five scenarios for how the stock market might react to Tuesday’s inflation report: 40% chance — CPI between 4% and 4.2% on a year-over-year basis: This is the bank’s trading desk’s most likely scenario, noting it “will have the market inching closer to ‘Mission Accomplished’ on breaking inflation. This should also cement the Fed being paused in June with the print more integral to the July Fed meeting.” The S & P 500 would pop between 0.75% and 1.25% under this scenario, JPMorgan said. 35% chance — CPI between 4.2% and 4.4%: JPMorgan said that, while a number in this range would confirm the country’s disinflationary trend, “it would do little to aid the ‘Fed is done’ narrative.” The S & P 500 would trade between breakeven and 0.5% higher under this outcome, the traders predicted. 15% chance — CPI between 4.5% and 4.8%: The S & P 500 would drop 1% to 1.5% under this outcome as it would “do little to dissuade markets from pricing further Fed action especially if we see Core and Core Services accelerate higher.” 7.5% chance — CPI of 3.9% or less: Under this unlikely scenario, the S & P 500 would rally 1.5% to 2%, as Treasury yields would fall and “remove all hiking expectations.” The clear winner here would be the tech sector, JPMorgan traders said. 2.5% chance — CPI print of 4.9% or higher: “This tail risk scenario would like drive rate hike expectations higher and potentially leave us with an unofficial news report that the Fed will hike the next day while keeping July in play for another 25bps hike,” according to JPMorgan. The S & P 500 would drop 2.5% to 3% under this outcome. Bottom line: Buckle up for some potentially big market moves. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
