JPMorgan’s Mark Kolanovic says markets are likely in for an extended bumpy ride. “Despite the strong early-summer rally, our framework continues to point to challenging macro fundamentals and headwinds for risky assets,” Kolanovic wrote in a Wednesday note. “This reasoning is based on market valuations (fundamentals), investor positioning, and various macro and geopolitical considerations.” Higher-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve have stoked investor worry on Wall Street. Bond yields have surged, with the 10-year Treasury reaching its highest level since 2007 on Wednesday. Crude oil prices have also steadily climbed, which is likely to further pressure consumers already contending with persistent inflation. Overall, Kolanovic says, there are currently more economic headwinds to contend with, than there are tailwinds to alleviate pressure. “Over the past 6 months, the headwinds for risks in our framework are stronger, and tailwinds weaker, in our view,” he said. Kolanovic noted that worsening valuations coupled with a widening gap between bond yields and equity yields were potential worrying signs, while Wall Street seems over focused on a small field of megacap stocks. He also pointed toward increasing delinquencies tied to auto loans, credit cards, loans and mortgages, and said the last time such a strong uptick occurred in 2007, before the Great Financial Crisis. The analyst drew a comparison of current macroeconomic conditions to 2008, although he noted key differences remain, including a more lock-step effort from global central banks to tighten monetary policy. Kolanovic also said another key difference is that mortgage delinquencies remain below pre-pandemic levels despite while “that market is effectively frozen.” “While we are not saying that the situation now is the same as in 2007-2008, there are enough similarities to warrant caution,” he said. “Differences are in terms of exposure of economic segments to the interest rate rise, leverage of different market segments, size of rates increase, impact that comes at a different (likely longer) time lag, as well as geopolitical and energy considerations.” Kolanovic is JPMorgan’s chief global market strategist who gained notoriety for correctly calling the post-pandemic rebound in stocks, something that very few on Wall Street anticipated. Currently, Kolanovic and his team have an official year-end target of 4,200, just slightly lower than where it is now. In the near term, the strategist believes stocks could fall further until some of these headwinds subside. Most Wall Street strategists expect the S & P 500 to rebound back above 4,300 before the year is out, according to the exclusive CNBC PRO strategist survey . — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
