Gas prices may play less of a role in pushing consumers to switch to electric vehicles, according to a Barclays report that cites its own credit card numbers for its findings. Analyst Joy Zhu said in a Tuesday note that an earlier trend of consumers spending more on gas before purchasing an EV has started to reverse. The Barclays study focuses on consumers purchasing Tesla EVs rather than other makes. The report found that buyers are now more willing to purchase an EV even though they’re spending less on fuel prior to the purchase. Environmental motivation Zhu posits that demand for EVs may now be rooted more in financial, social and environmental motivations as opposed to fuel costs, which in turn could lead to higher overall demand for EVs, even if gas prices decline. “[I]n previous years, consumers who bought EVs were spending more on gas prior to their purchase than consumers in recent years,” Zhu said. “This suggests that new EV buyers are willing to buy an EV even at lower levels of gas expenditure, and that EV demand will stay higher than before even if gas prices decline.” “Our U.S. Barclays credit card data show consumers with lower gas expenditures are now more willing to buy EVs than previously,” Zhu said. “In recent years, EV buyers were already spending less on gas prior to their EV purchase than EV buyers in previous years.” In 2017, consumers who purchased a Tesla were spending nearly three-times as much on gas compared to drivers who didn’t buy a Tesla that year, Zhu said. By 2023, the analyst added, the ratio had fallen to roughly 1.9 times. Signs of cooling The EV market has shown some recent signs of cooling. Market leader Tesla reported a roughly 7% decline in vehicle deliveries in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. The company again slashed prices on the Model 3 and Model Y in response, doubling down on an effort to spur demand. Volkswagen, which has also stepped up EV offerings in recent years, is slashing production of the ID3 and Cupra Born models and is no longer moving forward with plans for a new production plant in Germany . But total demand for EVs still seems poised to tick higher despite any speedbumps. Volvo noted on Thursday a 52% increase in electric vehicle sales last month globally compared to the same period in 2022. In the U.S. alone, Volvo saw a 631% increase from September 2022 to September 2023. TSLA 1Y mountain Past 12 month performance of Tesla shares. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
