As Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says, this is the most hated bull market of all time, yet it continues to power higher. There are plenty of overhanging uncertainties that could derail this rally that I’ll discuss below, but first let’s talk about technical condition of this rally. This V-shape recovery-turned-rally from April lows has been unrelenting. Any minor pullbacks are bought up and those left on the sideline are still waiting for a sizable pullback to enter. It could continue to power higher leaving those on the sideline chasing momentum and entries at new highs, or, the numerous overhanging threats to this market could begin to manifest and pullback may be ahead of us. We can’t know. No one knows the future. All we can do is control our process in the present and plan accordingly. To avoid the concern that we need to be able to predict the future to successfully invest in the markets, we recently deployed a VIX hedge to our Active Opps portfolio at Inside Edge Capital with a favorable risk-reward ratio. If the market does pullback the VIX hedge will provide some protection to our portfolio while we’re able to hold onto the strong names we’ve been building here with you every Tuesday on CNBC Pro. The S & P broke out from the late 2024 highs at around 6,140 and have not yet re-tested that breakout zone as support. It’s not required, but it would be nice to see this checkback to this significant technical level. Also located in this zone is the 50 period moving average (dotted purple). You’ll also notice the rate of change indicator below that has been in a decisive downtrend. To use a baseball analogy as I’m running travel baseball tryouts tonight, if you throw a ball in the air the speed of ascent will decelerate until the rate of change is zero and gravity takes over and pulls the ball back to the ground. The same thing here. At some point buyers will exhaust themselves and sellers will come in. Looking at the Volatility Index (VIX) overlay with the S & P 500 you’ll notice that there is a clear inverse relationship between the two. As the stock market falls, fear and the accompanying price of option insurance goes up. Home insurance on a house with a smoldering foundation is going to be a lot more expensive than a calm clear day. The VIX at 17 is still relatively cheap so insurance is still reasonable. Plus you’ll notice that I’ve outlined a divergence between late 2024 and now. With the S & P 500 at new highs, the VIX should be sub-15, but as mentioned above there are so many overhanging threats to the market investors are buying up the insurance policy keeping the VIX somewhat elevated. Specifically, we went to the VIX September monthly call options and bought the 23 strike and then sold the 29 call. The difference between the two should be around $1.50 for that $6 spread so that means you’re risking $150 to make $450 if the VIX is above 29 on Sept. 17. As mentioned, there are threats to the market that we all know about including a Fed that may not be ready to drop rates despite many calling for it, persistent inflation driven by strong demand tariff pressures, Geopolitical tensions, narrowing breadth in the market as mega-cap hyper scalers are starting to lead once again, and finally seasonality. September is historically the worst month for the S & P 500. Hopefully we won’t need the hedge and will close it at a loss. But if we do need it and the market is going to pullback, we can maintain our strong portfolio and not dislodge the low cost basis of names we’ve been building this year. -Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC We offer active portfolio management and regular subscriber updates like the idea presented above. DISCLOSURES: (Gordon owns VIX call spreads personally and in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
