According to the latest “US Wind Energy Monitor” report from Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP), developers installed 593 megawatts (MW) of new wind capacity in Q2 2025 – a 60% drop from the same quarter last year. But the US wind industry is expected to rebound fast, with 51% of forecasted capacity to come online in Q4 and full-year installations projected to hit 7.7 gigawatts (GW).
Onshore developers are in a race
The onshore wind market outlook rose 3.6% quarter-over-quarter (2.4 GW) as developers push to complete projects before federal tax credits expire.
“We are seeing this uptick in the near term because many projects are shovel-ready or under construction, fully permitted, and with a turbine order in place,” said Leila Garcia da Fonseca, director of research at Wood Mackenzie. “However, we will face uncertainty later in this decade due to tariff investigations and permitting challenges.”
Federal policy uncertainty has created a lot of headaches for the wind industry in H1 2025. While the Treasury Department’s guidance on tax credit eligibility provided a 7% boost to near-term installations, new tariff investigations could negatively impact two-thirds of the supply chain for wind turbine components. The Department of Commerce’s national security probe into imported turbine components threatens to raise project costs by as much as one-third, potentially delaying or derailing late-decade projects.
“We’re seeing policy whiplash,” Garcia da Fonseca added. “Treasury guidance helps the advanced development pipeline, but tariff investigations and permitting hurdles are creating uncertainty beyond 2027.”
Western states are expected to lead wind activity through 2029, accounting for 31% of new capacity, followed by the Midwest. Illinois is set to overtake Texas with the most new onshore capacity in 2027, with more than 1.8 GW expected to come online.
Offshore wind’s five-year outlook
The offshore sector continues to face headwinds of federal stop-work orders and regulatory uncertainty. Even so, Wood Mackenzie projects 5.9 GW of offshore capacity will come online by 2029, with most of it arriving in 2026 and 2027.
“Recent federal stop-work orders and regulatory uncertainty have disrupted the offshore wind sector, weakening already fragile offtake opportunities and exposing the high investment risk in US offshore wind development,” Garcia da Fonseca said. “However, our five-year outlook remains unchanged, and 70% of forecasted capacity is already under construction.”
The next big year for US wind
Wood Mackenzie expects average annual installations of 9.1 GW over the next five years across onshore, offshore, and repowering projects. By the end of 2029, total installed wind capacity is projected to hit 196.5 GW, including about 35.5 GW from new onshore builds, 6 GW offshore, and 4.5 GW from repowering.
A major spike is expected in 2027, when shovel-ready projects are slated to connect at a record pace, adding 12.3 GW of new capacity.
“Despite political headwinds, wind projects are demonstrating market resilience,” said Garcia da Fonseca. “Wind continues to secure interconnection service agreements in 2025 despite anti-wind rhetoric. The technology maintains meaningful market presence even as solar and storage lead interconnection activity, with leadership concentrated in SPP and ERCOT.”
Read more: FERC: Solar + wind made up 90% of new US power generating capacity to July 2025
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