Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) thinktank are warning Donald Trump that Vladimir Putin is “uninterested in ending his war” in Ukraine and wants to capture all of the country.
Putin has said that he is prepared to start peace negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelensky, but experts are not so sure.
Analysts at the ISW said, “The Kremlin has attempted to set the pace and sequence of negotiations about temporary ceasefires and a permanent peace in Ukraine since the start of the US effort to hold negotiations to end the war in February 2025.”
They added: “Putin’s efforts to posture himself as amenable to US peace proposals and meaningful negotiations while refusing to meet with Zelenskyy in the near term are attempts to obfuscate the reality that Putin remains uninterested in ending his war and is attempting to extract bilateral concessions from the United States without meaningfully engaging in a peace process.
The analysts are saying that Putin’s plans to capture all of Ukraine “would take decades” so it likely Russia will settle for the four Oblast, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.
Putin is likely attempting to frame Russia’s seizure of the four oblasts as inevitable in order to push Ukraine and the West to capitulate to Kremlin demands,” the analysts said.
They added, “Russia’s occupation of the four oblasts is neither inevitable nor imminent, as Russian forces will face serious operational obstacles in what are likely to be multi-year endeavours.
However, Russia would face fierce resistance, the analysts said, “Russia has not abandoned its more extensive, original war aims.
“Putin recently claimed that ‘all of Ukraine’ is Russia’s, Russian officials have called for Russia to seize Sumy City, and Kremlin officials routinely label Odesa and Kharkiv cities as ‘Russian’ cities, for example.
Putin remains committed to destroying the Ukrainian state, identity, and culture and subjugating the Ukrainian people,” the ISW added.
They concluded, “Putin continues to believe that time is on Russia’s side and that Russia can outlast Ukraine and the West.
Economic measures coupled with Western military aid that enables Ukraine to inflict battlefield setbacks on Russian forces remain critical to changing Putin’s calculus and bringing him to the negotiating table willing to make compromises to end the war.
