Cleveland-based KeyCorp yields 8.5%. Dallas-based Comerica pays 7.9%. Atlanta’s Truist Financial 7.2%. And the list of regional banks with sky-high dividends goes on and on. So investors might be forgiven for wondering how safe those dividends are, especially after PacWest Bancorp on Friday slashed its quarterly payout to a nominal penny a share, down from $0.25. But Goldman Sachs is out Tuesday with a note from analysts led by Ryan Nash saying that although regional banks as a group yield 6.5% — the most since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 — not to worry. At least not immediately. “Our analysis suggests there is no immediate need to cut their dividend; however, if the environment gets worse (macro or regulatory) banks may choose to preserve capital and cut their dividend in lieu of needing to take greater steps to strengthen their capital ratios,” Goldman said. Examining bank dividends and bank capital “suggests companies should be able to maintain their current payout: Dividend payouts totaled ~40% of EPS in 1Q23 and are expected to remain around those levels for the remainder of 2023 (~39%) and 2024 (~41%) by consensus,” Goldman said. Much of Goldman’s optimism stems from the fact that there are few other demands on banks’ earnings, or the amount of capital they hold. Loan demand, for example is limited. “Given that the dividend is the main use of capital at this point, even if we were to see a 40-50% stress to EPS (from higher credit costs, as an example), banks would still be able to cover their dividend. KEY (~53%) and TFC (46%) screen as having the highest payouts,” as a percentage of earnings in 2023, the investment bank said. Capital One (~24), M & T Bank (~29%) and Zions Bancorp (30%) have among the lowest payout ratios.
