Strong earnings from major technology companies should offset declines from other parts of the market heading into year-end, according to Barclays. Strategist Venu Krishna raised his 2024 S & P 500 target to 5,600 from 5,300. That puts Krishna at the median of strategists included in the CNBC Pro Market Strategist Survey . The new forecast implies less than 1% upside from Monday’s close. The S & P 500 has already rallied more than 16% year to date, reaching record levels and blowing past many Wall Street estimates. .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date “Macro moderation is likely to be a headwind for ex-Tech EPS growth through the end of the year; we expect this to be offset by Big Tech continuing to surprise to the upside as it did in 1H,” Krishna wrote in a note. Investors have piled into tech stocks this year amid expectations that artificial intelligence would bolster corporate profits. The S & P 500 tech sector is up 29% in 2024, with AI-related stocks Nvidia and Super Micro Computer more than doubling. That said, tech has been under pressure recently, as investors pared positions in the sector and rotated into more cyclical parts of the market such as small-cap stocks. Krishna is unfazed, however. “Recent US equity volatility should end up fairly contained,” he said. “Major unwinds seem systematically/technically motivated rather than fundamental (crowded positioning among discretionary funds, systematic equity exposure was elevated, June-July rally was frothy/mostly multiple expansion, market implied probability of a September rate cut was already ~74% prior to June CPI).” There “could be more pain trade to go, but we see it as an opportunity to reset valuations as focus shifts to 2Q24 earnings.” Aside from tech, Barclays likes the utilities sector going forward, noting it’s the only space outside of technology that “we estimate will generate above-SPX EPS growth in FY24.” 6,500 in 2025? Barclays also set its 2025 S & P 500 target at 6,500. That implies upside of 16.8% from Monday’s close. Krishna said that, while there’s much uncertainty around next year’s estimates, “we expect most of the macro inputs to our EPS framework to be smaller (but still negative) headwinds for earnings growth next year.
