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Best Stocks: This ‘Netflix of music’ is a rare name that’s both growth and defensive

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
May 1, 2025
in Investing
Best Stocks: This ‘Netflix of music’ is a rare name that’s both growth and defensive
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(This is The Best Stocks in the Market , brought to you by Josh Brown and Sean Russo of Ritholtz Wealth Management.) Today we are highlighting Spotify (SPOT) , the Netflix of music because it is dominant, defensive and growing. Spotify has been on our list for 26 weeks. There are 20 stocks in the communication sector that trade on the New York Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $10 billion or greater. Spotify has the best return year-to-date out of all 20, up more than 34%. It’s also the second-best performer the past year, up 108%, following Reddit up 153%. SPOT has tended to trade in tandem with Netflix (NFLX) : SPOT went public in April of 2018 and has more than quadrupled over these first 1,780 days. Netflix, too, quadrupled in its first 1,780 trading days. Netflix then went on to return over 94,000%. Netflix is more than double the size of Spotify — $126 billion for SPOT vs $482 billion for NFLX. Both Netflix and Spotify average single-digit drawdowns over the past 3 years, which is inclusive of 2022 when the S & P 500 tumbled 19%. SPOT has averaged a 9% drawdown and Netflix has averaged a 6% drawdown. The defensive action of Spotify and Netflix this year is a rarity in a sector typically known for momentum only. SPOT is 5% below all-time highs, while NFLX is at all-time highs. There are only 40 other stocks in a shallower drawdown from all-time highs in the S & P 500 (Netflix is one of them). Out of these 40, only two are communication stocks. The vast majority of stocks that are holding up well are utilities, healthcare, and staples. Within the S & P 500, the median stock is 26% below all-time highs — there is still destruction going on underneath the surface, and Spotify is not participating. Spotify shares fell off a bit this week at one point after the company’s earnings and revenue were lighter than the Street expected, but CEO Daniel Ek still had positive things to say: “The underlying data at the moment is very healthy: engagement remains high, retention is strong, and thanks to our freemium model, people have the flexibility to stay with us even when things feel more uncertain,” Some highlights: Spotify exceeded its guidance in both Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and premium subscribers for Q1 Total MAUs reached 615 million, up 19% year-over-year Premium Subscribers grew to 254 million, a 14% increase YoY Total revenue for Q1 2025 grew 20% YoY Management highlighted continued improvements in profitability and efficiency. Prior to earnings, SPOT was trading at $596. It fell to about $540, and then rebounded to close Wednesday at about $614. Spotify has a dominant market position. As of early 2025, Spotify commands approximately 31.7% of the global music streaming market, surpassing Tencent Music at 14.4%, Apple Music with 12.6%, and Amazon Music with 11.1%. Spotify has one of the largest user bases in the world — in this most recent earnings report, Spotify had a total of 615+ million monthly active users. As Spotify ramps up its ad revenue, the cash flow faucet may finally be turning on — mirroring the profitability trajectory we’ve seen from Netflix in recent years. Risk Management: Levels to watch Traders may want to utilize the post-earnings sell-off low as a pivot point, which is $540 per share (the bottom of Wednesday’s candle seen below). Below that level and the sellers have retaken control. Longer-term investors will want to allow more breathing room depending on risk tolerance. I like the 50-week moving average on a closing weekly basis for something like this — the last time it violated that level was in 2021 and obeying the sell signal kept you out of the grueling tech bear market in 2022. As you can see below, the buyers have come in repeatedly at that rising 50-week MA since it broke back above in early 2023. For us — so long as the long-term uptrend stays intact, SPOT looks good and can continue to look good. DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. INVESTING INVOLVES RISK. EXAMPLES OF ANALYSIS CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE ARE ONLY EXAMPLES. THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE CONTRIBUTORS AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE OFFICIAL POLICY OR POSITION OF RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC. ASSUMPTIONS MADE WITHIN THE ANALYSIS ARE NOT REFLECTIVE OF THE POSITION OF RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC” TO THE END OF OR OUR DISCLOSURE. Click here for the full disclaimer.

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