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Best stocks: Why this dining stock is hitting highs, even though Josh Brown never eats at Olive Garden

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
May 29, 2025
in Investing
Best stocks: Why this dining stock is hitting highs, even though Josh Brown never eats at Olive Garden
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(This is The Best Stocks in the Market , brought to you by Josh Brown and Sean Russo of Ritholtz Wealth Management.) Josh here — One of the things I’ve learned to do over the years is to stop thinking about investment opportunities purely through the lens of my own taste or experiences. I may not always be representative of the attitudes and desires of the bulk of the population. Nowhere is this more true than when it comes to consumer discretionary stocks and especially within the restaurant group. Darden Restaurants (DRI) owns eleven major dining brands, including the Capital Grille, Ruth’s Chris, Yard House, Eddie V’s, Longhorn Steakhouse and Seasons 52. Most people know Darden as the former owner of the Red Lobster chain (no longer part of the company) and the current owner of their flagship chain, The Olive Garden. I live in Nassau County, Long Island, home to the highest concentration of incredible Italian restaurants anywhere in America outside of Brooklyn and Manhattan. I’m a fifteen minute drive away from Cippolini in Manhasset, Il Mulino and 388 in Roslyn, Chris and Tony’s in Syosset or, if I want to play a home game, Matteo’s or Bella Notte in Bellmore. Suffice it to say, I’m not ever eating at an Olive Garden. But most people don’t live where I live or have the same choices that I have. Most people don’t even know the difference or what they’re missing. For most people, The Olive Garden is a good night out, close enough to home, and at a reasonable price. That’s probably why the stock price looks like this with the company hitting our Best Stocks in the Market list this week: They do a great job serving their customers and maintaining the chain’s brand equity in a race-to-the-bottom sector where most of their competitors are relying on gimmicks and discounts. Last year, Olive Garden did $3.83 billion in sales earning over $800 million in profit for the company. Darden’s systemwide sales are projected to top $12.1 billion this year, with a juicy 2.6% dividend, an authorized stock buyback and a healthy earnings per share number of around $9.50. I also want to say that if you find yourself near a shopping mall or a strange downtown area and you’re not 100% sure where to go for lunch or dinner, Capital Grille will never let you down. Get the NY Strip with the au poivre sauce or the ribeye with the cajun rub and it’ll be a “lights out” experience for you. You can’t go wrong. Fortunately, for the shareholders of Darden, my opinions about their other chains don’t mean anything. Their audience of diners are voting with their wallets and the share price is reflecting this. Sean’s going to go a little deeper into the technicals and fundamentals while I figure out what’s for lunch. Best Stock Spotlight: Darden (DRI) On the list since: 5/27/2025 Sean: Darden is the largest restaurant operator in the U.S., representing 3% to 4% market share — this comes out to about 2,000 company-operated restaurants in the U.S., according to YCharts. Olive Garden represents 44% of the company’s revenue, Longhorn Steakhouse is 25% of revenue, fine dining is 11% of revenue, and the rest of the brands make up the last 20%. This is a geographically and economically diversified restaurant chain. It caters to most people along the income spectrum, which is a key diversifier for a restaurant business. Darden has improved segment profit margins across its major brands. Olive Garden’s segment profit margin increased from 22.5% to 23.0% YoY in the latest quarter, driven from lower costs of goods sold. A number of brands are seeing positive sales and cost efficiency savings. Leaning into the company’s growth capabilities, DRI rolled out its first-party delivery service through various partnerships which has expanded sales channels and improved guest experience, and these improvements are showing up on the top and bottom lines. Over the past 5 years, DRI has compounded revenue at a 6% annual clip. More impressively, they have grown EPS at a 12% clip annually during that same period, and the growth doesn’t stop there. EPS is expected to grow 9% annually over the next two years. Darden’s long-term chart is up and to the right. This stock has bounced off its 200-day moving average only twice on a weekly basis, going back 5 years: And this year, it’s stuck especially close to its 50 day moving average (see one year chart in Josh’s commentary). DRI has a 63 Relative Strength Index— not too hot, not too cold. It’s about 6% above its 50-day moving average and 19% above its 200-day moving average, solidly in an uptrend which is what we like to see. It’s hitting new 52 week highs and all-time highs in what has been a challenging macro environment. Risk Management Josh: Traders want to eyeball the level just below $200 for a change in the short-term trend. That neatly coincides with where the 50-day moving average is keying off of. Investors can use $180 as their line in the sand. Darden reports before the open on Friday, June 20. On each of the last four earnings reports, investors bought the news that day. Good luck and have a great weekend. DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. INVESTING INVOLVES RISK. EXAMPLES OF ANALYSIS CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE ARE ONLY EXAMPLES. THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE CONTRIBUTORS AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE OFFICIAL POLICY OR POSITION OF RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC. JOSH BROWN IS THE CEO OF RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT AND MAY MAINTAIN A SECURITY POSITION IN THE SECURITIES DISCUSSED. ASSUMPTIONS MADE WITHIN THE ANALYSIS ARE NOT REFLECTIVE OF THE POSITION OF RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC” TO THE END OF OR OUR DISCLOSURE. Click here for the full disclaimer.

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