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Beware Canada trade war: U.S. stocks with the most revenue exposure to the Great White North

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
April 2, 2025
in Investing
Beware Canada trade war: U.S. stocks with the most revenue exposure to the Great White North
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As the market braces for President Donald Trump’ s massive tariff rollout, investors should be cautious of some stocks that have meaningful Canada revenue exposure. On Wednesday ahead of the announcement, stocks ticked higher, with all three major averages in positive territory in what has already been a volatile week. Those moves come as the market has seen recent declines. In fact, the S & P 500 has closed out five of the past six weeks in the red, as investor uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs and anxiety about the U.S. economy facing a recession plagued stocks. Against this market backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for S & P 500 companies that have significant revenue exposure to Canada. These names have the most to lose if a trade war forces them to raise prices in Canada. These stocks could also be in for pain if demand is reduced in Ottawa due to boycotts against the U.S. — or if an ensuing trade war tips the U.S.’ northern neighbor into a recession. Here are the stocks that came up. Retail giant Costco is one of the top three names on the list, having almost 14% of revenue exposure to Canada. Shares have slid more than 8% over the past month, but they are up nearly 5% in 2025. In a recent earnings call with analysts, Costco CEO Ron Vachris said “it is difficult to predict the impact of tariffs, but our team remains agile and our goal will be to minimize the impact of related cost increases to our members.” He also noted that around one-third of the company’s U.S. sales are imported from other countries, with less than half of those being items that come from China, Mexico and Canada. Most analysts are optimistic on Costco over the next several months. Among the 40 analysts covering the stock, 25 have a strong buy or buy rating, according to LSEG, and the consensus price target implies about 11% upside. Analysts are also mostly bullish on Dayforce , which has the highest Canada revenue exposure on the list at more than 21%. Notably, 12 out of the 20 analysts covering the human resources software stock have a strong buy or buy rating, per LSEG. Consensus price targets call for nearly 34% upside. “We … believe that product innovations like Managed Services, Dayforce Wallet, and Flex work are levers that should drive incremental long-term growth,” said Siti Panigrahi, a Mizuho analyst, in February. The analyst, who rates the stock as outperform, added that management is focused on boosting the company’s free cash flow margin. However, shares have considerably lagged the broader market this year. Compared to the S & P 500’s year-to-date loss of almost 4%, shares of Dayforce have plummeted more than 18%. DAY YTD mountain DAY, year-to-date Oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil also found itself on the list, given its nearly 9% of Canada revenue exposure. That stock has risen more than 6% over the past month and more than 10% year to date.



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