Bitcoin at its lows this month was down more than 50% from its high reached late last year. It has since bounced a bit, but investors shouldn’t heave a sigh of relief just yet — there is likely more downside ahead, according to Wolfe Research. Since 2012, the average peak-to-trough drawdown during each four-year bitcoin bear market cycle has been 75%, they noted, adding that bitcoin hasn’t come close to falling that far this cycle. BTC.CM= ALL mountain Bitcoin, long term “What does signal danger is the average drawdown of each cycle,” analyst Rob Ginsberg said in the note. “We briefly reached 50% last week before bouncing, but should history repeat, 75% would imply we get close to $30k.” Bitcoin gets battered Bitcoin tanked to a 16-month low of $60,062 on February 5, down from its its record high of $126,000 reached last October. It bounced back 15% to about $72,000 the following day, but the momentum behind that rally soon faded . The flagship cryptocurrency has largely remained in the range of $66,000 and $72,000 this week. It was last trading at $67,991, up 7% over the last five days. However, the market conditions that drove down bitcoin are still in play, and macroeconomic and political tailwinds that might lift the asset out of the red are unlikely to materialize anytime soon, according to Wolfe Research. “The same forces at play that drove us here initially remain in place and we don’t foresee any changes from a macro, sentiment or legislative perspective that are going to suddenly turn the tide,” Ginsberg wrote. Renewed efforts to create a legislative framework for digital assets have faced resistance on the Hill, despite picking up modestly last week, adding to doubts that a crypto market structure bill could become law this year — a fact that is bearish for bitcoin. Meanwhile, geopolitical and economic tensions remain high, putting pressure on risk-on assets such as bitcoin and equities. “The dust may have settled…for now, but we would be hard pressed to think the bottom is in,” the analysts wrote.
