Bitcoin is close to a rally that could push it to a new record, but investors may have to wait a little longer as the race U.S. presidential race comes to an end. The flagship cryptocurrency finished October up 10%, closing the month above $70,000 for the first time since March. It has been struggling to rise back above that level ever since, and succeeded this past week before modestly retreating again, ending 6% off its all-time high. The focus now is on the election. While many investors have tempered their concern over possible long-term harm to the crypto industry from a victory by Vice President Kamala Harris – and bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics support a long-term uptrend – election-related volatility could still rock prices beyond the Nov. 5 vote. “What’s driving price action is undoubtedly the election,” Nic Puckrin, CEO and co-founder at crypto education site Coin Bureau, said of the November outlook. “The markets will take their cue based on who wins the White House. Trump is widely seen as pro-crypto although irrespective of who wins, bitcoin is still primed for a pump.” BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin YTD Republican nominee former President Donald Trump has courted the crypto industry this year, presenting himself as the pro-crypto candidate . Democratic nominee Harris has been more circumspect on crypto, and the industry is split on how her potential presidency could affect crypto companies. “No matter what the outcome of the election is, we’re going to have more clarity on the direction [for crypto] from both parties,” said Devin Ryan, an analyst at Citizens JMP. While Republicans are “a little more, on balance, constructive” toward crypto, there’s also a growing bipartisan consensus from both parties in Washington toward fostering the industry, he said. “From what we’re tracking, it does feel like either outcome would be incrementally positive.” Still, bitcoin has recently moved at least partly in line with prediction markets, rising with Trump’s fortunes and falling when Harris has gained the upper hand, said Needham’s John Todaro, a crypto and high-performance computing analyst. He expects price fluctuations on election night as the votes come in, believing that Bitcoin could eventually gain 10% to 15% in the event of a Trump win and fall a similar amount if Harris prevails. October and November are historically strong months for bitcoin, finishing higher in seven of the past 11 Novembers. In mid-October, Bitcoin marked six months from its last halving, the supply-controlling event that occurs every four years. In previous cycles, bitcoin’s price has peaked about 18 months after the halving. But while supply is slowing, demand is rising, giving investors confidence in the cryptocurrency. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) raked in more than $2 billion of inflows over the past week, according to FactSet. More than $870 million of that came in one day, a record inflow for the fund, according to JPMorgan. Bitcoin ETFs have now attracted more than $23 billion of inflows since their launch in January, according to JPMorgan. “Continued inflows into the BTC ETF products offered in the U.S. will likely keep the steady upward momentum that bitcoin has been building,” said Chris Chung, CEO at Solana liquidity aggregator Titan. “Volatility has decreased for both gold and bitcoin as traders look forward to the [election] results, although both assets have benefited from positive underlying fundamentals incrementally driving the price up.” “The main danger we foresee would be temporary angst around election results affecting sentiment and holding back further development of the ecosystem,” Chung added. “But the underlying fundamentals are strong and would eventually absorb this impact.” BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin year-to-date —CNBC’s Jesse Pound contributed reporting.
