With President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House for a second term , there will be sweeping policy changes that could impact certain areas of the stock market, BTIG said in a note Wednesday. “As is often the case following elections, the market will now begin the process of attempting to separate rhetoric from reality,” wrote Isaac Boltansky, the firm’s director of policy research. “To this end, Trump promised a torrent of tariffs, a historically restrictive immigration agenda, trillions in tax cuts, and repeal of increasingly popular laws like the IRA [Inflation Reduction Act] and the ACA [Affordable Care Act],” he added. Trump’s proposed tariffs include a universal levy as high as 20% on all goods imported into the United States. He has also called for a 60% or higher tariff on goods from China. In addition, he has floated plans to reduce corporate tax rates to as low as 15% from 21%, and eliminate income tax on tips, Social Security and overtime pay. Then there are the provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set to expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress intervenes. Those include reduced individual income tax rates and increased alternative minimum tax (AMT) exemption amounts. These stocks are among those BTIG sees as the biggest winners and losers from Trump’s victory. Winners M & A and consolidation A Trump presidency likely means a more supportive environment for corporate consolidation, Boltansky said. “There are caveats as turnover for some key policy positions could take time, but any shift from current leadership would likely lead to more M & A activity,” he wrote. He views this as positive for deals currently under review, like Capital One ‘s proposed purchase of Discover Financial . BTIG currently has a neutral rating on both names. Capital One’s stock is up 14% in midday trading, while Discover shares are trading 17.5% higher. Private prisons A Republican White House would allow for private prison firms like Geo Group and CoreCivic to contract with the United States Marshals Service and the Federal Bureau of Prisons, Boltansky said. More importantly, the administration “would take a far more aggressive stance on border enforcement, which would impact the [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] business lines at these firms,” he added. Shares of Geo Group soared 38% on Wednesday, while CoreCivic jumped about 28%. BTIG doesn’t cover these names. Digital assets Trump has been vocal in his support for the digital asset ecosystem, positioning himself as the pro-crypto candidate . That bodes well for companies such as crypto exchange Coinbase Global and bitcoin development company MicroStrategy , as well as miners like Riot Platforms , Boltansky said. COIN YTD mountain Coinbase year to date Shares of Coinbase and MicroStrategy gained 29% and 13%, respectively. Riot’s stock popped 22%. BTIG rates Riot and MicroStrategy a buy, but does not have a rating on Coinbase. Health savings accounts Boltansky said he expects a pronounced effort to expand Health Savings Accounts (HSA), which can be done through the Trump administration or congressional legislation. That would be positive for names like HealthEquity, which BTIG rates a buy, and Webster Financial , he noted. The firm doesn’t cover Webster Bank. Shares of Health Equity gained about 6% and Webster moved 15% higher, hitting a 52-week high Wednesday. Meanwhile, expanding short-term limited duration insurance (STLDI) plans will also be prioritized, he believes. Those are offered by companies like Everest Group , which BTIG does not cover. Its stock added nearly 2% in midday trading. Losers Among those who stand to lose from a Trump White House are firms exposed to global trade thanks to the president-elect’s proposed tariffs, Boltansky said. “Reasonable minds can disagree on whether these proposals will become reality or just part of a broader negotiating strategy, but private estimates suggest that they could cost the average family $2,600,” he wrote.
