With the Autumn Statement fast approaching, new polling from Opinium reveals the public think that major UK taxes are already too high, or are high enough already.
The ‘Big Three’ Taxes
As rumours swirl that the chancellor intends to raise one or all of the ‘Big Three’ taxes in the Autumn Statement, breaking Labour’s 2024 Manifesto pledge, public support appears limited.
Only 7% of UK adults think that the basic rate of income tax is currently too low, with two in five saying it is too high (39%) and 37% saying it is currently around the right level.
Similarly, only 5% think that employee National Insurance is currently too low, while two in five (39%) say it is too high and 36% think it is around the correct rate. Only 3% of the public think VAT is too low, with half (47%) saying it is currently too high and a third (34%) saying it is around the right level.
The public are more split on raising the top rate of income tax, with a quarter (26%) saying it is too high, while a quarter believe it is too low (27%). A similar proportion (23%) think the rate is around the right level currently.
When asked which tax rises they least wanted to see introduced at the Budget, the top answers were council tax (39%), followed by raising the basic rate of income tax (34%), raising VAT (33%), raising employee National Insurance (21%), raising fuel duty (20%) and raising inheritance tax (11%).
Budget Bingo
Speculation has also been growing that the chancellor may introduce Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on sales of primary residences over a certain threshold. With one in five (20%) people saying they would be personally affected by this policy change, the public is fairly divided: 28% of the public support it, while a third (32%) are opposed.
Nearly two in five (37%) also oppose the chancellor reducing the level of tax relief on pension contributions, with a similar number saying they would be personally affected (41%). Only a quarter (26%) support the proposal.
The most popular of the rumoured proposals is an annual ‘mansion tax’ of 1% on properties worth more than £2 million, which half (53%) of UK adults support, with only one in five (19%) opposed. Only 14% of UK adults think they would be affected by the introduction of this tax.
Making private property rental income subject to National Insurance, which has also been rumoured ahead of the Autumn Statement, is also more popular than unpopular; two in five (38%) support the change, with only 22% opposed. Nearly one in five (19%) expect to be affected were this policy change to be included in the Autumn Statement.
Budget impact on Brits’ financial decision making
A majority (57%) of UK adults think the chancellor increasing income tax would impact their financial decisions. Two thirds (66%) anticipate that an increase in VAT would also affect their decision making, with 46% saying that a rise in employee National Insurance would have an impact.
Nearly two in five (37%) say that reducing the level of tax relief on pension contributions would affect their financial decisions. This rises to 46% among 18-34-year-olds and 42% among 35-49-year-olds, most of whom will still be working and saving into their pensions. A quarter (26%) also reported that introducing CGT on sales of primary residences would be likely to affect their financial decision making.
James Endersby, CEO of Opinium, said, “Ahead of the Autumn Statement, our research lays out a clear message for the chancellor from the public.
“With most people saying income tax, National Insurance and VAT are high enough already, there’s little appetite for further increases in the ‘Big Three’ taxes, which account for the majority of the tax intake.
“Instead, the public appear more open to options like a mansion tax, which would directly affect a relatively small number of people, while being more negative towards changes that could hit pensions or family homes.”
