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Buy this tax software stock after earnings, analysts say. It pays a dividend, too

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
February 26, 2025
in Investing
Buy this tax software stock after earnings, analysts say. It pays a dividend, too
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Tax software juggernaut Intuit is on Wall Street’s radar after the company issued a strong quarterly report – and the stock happens to be a dividend payer. Intuit, the maker of TurboTax and QuickBooks, posted adjusted earnings of $3.32 per share on $3.96 billion of revenue in its fiscal second quarter. The results surpassed the profit of $2.58 per share and revenue of $3.83 billion analysts polled by LSEG had estimated. The stock, which has a dividend yield of 0.7%, popped nearly 12% on Wednesday, giving Silicon Valley-based Intuit a market value of $161 billion. Shares have had a rocky 12 months, however, down more than 6%. Intuit is well-liked on the Street, with 23 of 32 analysts rating it a buy or strong buy, with consensus price targets suggesting 15% upside from current levels, according to LSEG. Small business strength Analysts were largely upbeat on the results – and on Intuit sticking with its conservative forecast for the current fiscal year ending July 31. Intuit sees adjusted earnings ranging from $19.16 to $19.36 per share and revenue in a range of $18.16 billion to $18.347 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet anticipated earnings of $19.29 per share and revenue of $18.28 billion. “Despite the strong Q2 results, management kept the FY25 targets for both the top- and bottom-line results unchanged, yielding a conservative target for 2H25,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss in a report out Wednesday. “With ~25% upside to our unchanged $730 price target and increased conviction in the potential for positive EPS revisions, we move to [overweight] on the shares.” INTU 1Y mountain Intuit shares over the past 12 months In particular, the analyst highlighted Intuit’s strength in its small business segment, which saw 19% revenue growth year over year in the second quarter, compared to the fiscal year 2025 target of 16% to 17%. “Intuit is seeing strength in solutions targeting higher-end mid-market customers – in particular its QuickBooks Online Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite offerings, which saw 40% [year-over-year] revenue growth in the quarter,” Weiss said. Another factor in Intuit’s favor is that it’s cheap relative to its peers, he added, noting that the stock trades at 24-times calendar-year 2026 earnings per share. “After historically sustaining a significant premium against its peer group, increasing concern on the durability of growth in the Consumer Tax business has weighed heavily on the multiple over the past year,” Weiss said. Credit Karma Credit Karma, Intuit’s personal finance business, also caught the Street’s attention, with the business seeing revenue reach $511 million, up 36% from the same period a year ago. That compares to a 29% increase in the first quarter that ended in October. “The results suggest that Q1 strength was not short lived and driven by ongoing strength in the core personal loans and credit card lines, but also the emerging offerings such as auto insurance,” wrote Bank of America analyst Brad Sills in a Tuesday note. He reiterated his buy rating on Intuit, but dialed back his price target to $740 from $780, citing “multiple compression across the group and lower [free cash flow] (from an admittedly high level).” Sills was optimistic on TurboTax, noting a “bullish tone on traction with growth initiatives undertaken this year for the TurboTax Live and Full Service.” Efforts to streamline the filing process could boost customer satisfaction in TurboTax Live, the analyst added. For the full-service business, efforts to advertise in the fall – as opposed to January – could address some of the issues that prevented better traction in the past two tax seasons, Sills added. Indeed, while many taxpayers start thinking about the filing season in January – when they start receiving the documents necessary to prepare their returns – plenty of filers with more elaborate returns go on extension and wind up waiting until October. Revenue focus Goldman Sachs analyst Kash Rangan stuck with his buy rating in a Tuesday note, but raised his price target to $860 from $800 on the back of the quarterly results — far above the Street consensus of $714, according to FactSet data. He noted that Intuit is in the early stages of a shift that will see it focus on growth in revenue per customer. “This will be driven by [total addressable market] expansion, cross-sell and up-sell of new higher priced online services, and international growth,” Rangan said, noting that small- to mid-sized businesses’ appetite for digital services is “increasingly favorable.” “While the macro environment may slow growth expectations in the near term, the critical nature of Intuit’s offerings and the company’s shift to a more recurring/subscription revenue model lend themselves to a more predictable growth cycle despite a harder spending backdrop,” Rangan said.



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