Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt holds just a 23.1% chance of retaining his seat in the upcoming General Election, with the Tories’ national struggle placing the Chancellor under threat.
The Liberal Democrats, and their candidate Paul Follows, are the predicted challengers, with a massive 83.3% chance of claiming a key seat in the national battle and a huge coup in unseating a leading Conservative.
Meanwhile, despite Labour being given a 97.1% chance of becoming the largest party in the House of Commons after the July 4th vote, they have a slim 4.8% chance of winning this rural Surrey seat.
As part of the research, OLBG have calculated the chances of various members of recent cabinets of losing their seats, with the data for other various high-profile Conservatives also included below.
In the boundary shake-up, Hunt has lost the Farnham and Bordon area from his constituency, with those two forming a new constituency. Hunt’s presence appears unlikely to prevent the Tory loss, with nearby Guildford being likely to fall into Lib Dem hands as they have a 75% chance of claiming victory there.
Meanwhile, neighbouring Farnham and Bordon is projected to remain as a safe Conservative seat despite the loss of Hunt as their candidate, with a 69.2% chance of winning compared to 36.4% for the Lib Dems and 6.7% for Labour.
