Just as Tesla investors were getting excited about a potential rollout of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in its second-largest market, China has reportedly shut down Elon Musk’s latest timeline.
According to a new report from Chinese state media, Musk’s claim that FSD would be approved “next month” is simply “not true.”
This feels like a case of “Elon time” meeting China’s no-nonsense.
Yesterday, Elon Musk made a splash at the World Economic Forum in Davos, claiming that Tesla FSD could be approved in Europe and China as soon as next month.
The comment sent Tesla (TSLA) stock ticking upward, as the Chinese market is seen as a massive revenue opportunity for Tesla’s software division. Musk specifically said he hoped for approval in Europe in February, adding, “and then maybe a similar timing for China.”
But less than 24 hours later, China is pouring cold water on that timeline.
China Daily, a state-run English-language newspaper often used by the government to signal official stances to the West, published a report today citing a “reliable source” close to the government.
The source bluntly stated that Musk’s claim of an approval next month is “not true” and that the timeline does not align with the current regulatory reality.
The report suggests that while Tesla has made progress with data security clearances, specifically following Musk’s surprise visit to Beijing back in April 2024, the full approval for a supervised autonomous driving system on public roads is not imminent for February 2026.
This isn’t the first time we’ve been down this road. Back in late 2025, Musk told shareholders that approval would likely come in early 2026, a slight delay from his previous prediction of “by the end of the year.”
Tesla has been laying the groundwork for FSD in China for years. In 2024, the automaker partnered with Baidu for lane-level mapping and navigation, a prerequisite for operating autonomous systems in the country due to strict surveying laws.
Despite the mapping deal and clearing some data security hurdles, it seems the final rubber stamp from Beijing remains elusive.
Electrek’s Take
This is classic Elon Musk optimism/borderline lying clashing with reality.
To be fair, Musk did say “hopefully” and “maybe” regarding the timeline, some of his favorite words, but he knows exactly how those words are interpreted by investors and the media. He says “next month,” the stock jumps, and then we find out later it’s actually six months, or years, away.
That said, the fact that Chinese state media is responding so quickly and specifically to Musk’s comments is interesting. It shows they are paying close attention.
Tesla FSD is arguably more critical in China than anywhere else. Local competitors like XPeng already have very capable city-driving ADAS working in major cities, and they don’t have the same data gathering limitations as Tesla.
Either way, I’m not as optimistic about Tesla’s FSD rollout in China as Tesla shareholders clearly are. That’s because several other companies are releasing similar products included in the price of the vehicles, which are already lower than Tesla’s prices.
Ultimately, I think Tesla will find it hard to sell its supervised FSD in China.
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