People walk near the New York Stock Exchange on July 18, 2023 in New York City
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This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Dow’s 11-day streak
Major U.S. stock indexes ended Monday in the green, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching an 11-day winning streak. The pan-European Stoxx 600 advanced 0.06%, led by a 1.5% rise in oil and gas stocks. But business activity in the euro zone and U.K. is slowing down, according to flash estimates.
Ex-Twitter
Twitter rebranded to “X” and dumped its iconic bird logo. The transition from Twitter to X is part of owner Elon Musk’s vision to turn the platform into an “everything app” that is “centered in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking,” according to CEO Linda Yaccarino’s tweet — sorry — “x,” in the brand’s new parlance for short messages. Analysts aren’t convinced by the move.
Busy week for central banks
The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will all announce interest rate decisions this week. Analysts are expecting the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points; the ECB to raise rates by 25 basis points as well; and the BOJ to keep its ultra-loose monetary policy intact. However, the central banks could pivot at the meeting following this week’s.
China’s ‘tortuous’ recovery
China’s Politburo, the top decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party, met Monday and pledged to “adjust and optimize policies in a timely manner” for its property sector. Acknowledging the country’s disappointing economic data, the Politburo said “the economy is facing new difficulties” and that the economic recovery will be “tortuous” — though it didn’t announce any major stimulus.
[PRO] No sign of recession
Steve Eisman, the investor who called and profited from the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, told CNBC he thinks “there’s no evidence of a recession” so far. Thus, the stock market can continue climbing — this is how he’s playing the market.
The bottom line
The stock market continues to look strong as all three major indexes rose Monday. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4%, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.52%.
The Dow notched 11 straight day of gains, its first in six years, which gave it its highest close since February 2022. To put into perspective how impressive that feat is, the Dow has achieved an 11-day rally — or longer — only six times since 1945, according to Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group. That’s less than once a decade.
Stocks were fired up by the energy sector, which rose 1.7% after oil and gas futures jumped to a three-month high. Goldman Sachs expects even higher prices as “demand reaches an all-time high” in the third quarter of the year, echoing a warning by the International Energy Agency.
In another indication markets are buoyant, meme stocks seem to be back. The Roundhill Meme ETF has gained nearly 60% year to date, suggesting investors are feeling confident enough to pour money into stocks driven by sentiment and speculation.
Small-cap stocks might be the next to rally, if Canaccord Genuity’s prediction proves right. In a note to clients, strategist Tony Dwyer said the Russell 2000 Index appears to be hitting a bottom relative to the S&P — which means it could start rising soon — especially given the expensive valuation of the top stocks in the broader index. Indeed, the Russell 2000 closed above its 200-day moving average, typically a sign that there’s positive momentum behind the movement.
With 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P reporting earnings this week, we’ll get a clearer sense of whether investor enthusiasm can last. Alphabet, Microsoft and Visa kick off earnings later today — but keep an eye on PacWest Bancorp for any signs of weakness in regional banks. For the smaller banks that have already reported last week, though, things appear stable so far. May the good times roll.
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