High housing supply is being offset by slow completions, with economic and political uncertainty impacting progress in the market causing buyers to exercise caution and wait for more favourable financial conditions before committing to mortgages, according to a new report.
Landmark’s newly released Q3 Residential Property Trends report demonstrates a detailed analysis of the housing market, providing data from July to September 2024. The report highlights that
The data set shows that despite listing volumes in Q3 spiking to 6% higher than the benchmark year of 2019 and reaching the highest levels in the past 12 months – completions for the quarter hit their lowest point (dipping to 42% below 2019 data) and signifying a significant gap between supply and demand.
However, the data also shows that sold subject to contract (SSTC) volume has remained relatively flat between Q2 2024 and Q3 2024, dipping only slightly by 5%, and revealing a slow upward trajectory over the summer. There was a 7% uptick at the end of the quarter in September 2024, from July 2024. Whilst this could suggest a post-Election confidence bump, these numbers are still trailing behind 2019 levels in this period, which were notably low.
Combined, this paints a clear picture of a buyers’ market where, despite high levels of supply, and tentative signs of progressed demand at SSTC, buyers are still battling significant market uncertainty and affordability concerns – explaining the low level of completions.
However, with interest rates still significantly higher (5%) than 2019 levels (0.75%), affordability concerns remain a critical barrier to completion levels returning to expected levels. Similarly, ongoing inefficiencies in the home buying and selling process remain a further blocker, as demonstrated by the comparison between the England & Wales data and that of Scotland, where the home-moving process remains healthier.
Whilst both markets are experiencing the same boom in listing volumes (up 6% across both markets), Scotland has seen a significantly lessened impact on completion rates with only a 13% drop off in completion volumes when compared to 2019. This compares to a 42% drop off in England and Wales.
To meet the Government’s 70% homeownership target, there are learnings to be taken from Scotland’s more efficient home-moving market, which fosters greater consumer confidence and certainty – enabling a smoother and faster transactions process.
Simon Brown, CEO of Landmark Information Group, commented: “Our Q3 trends data reflects the ongoing external economic and political turbulence causing affordability constraints and buyer caution, as home-movers pause ahead of the Budget to wait for more favourable interest rates.
“The strong level of supply is a positive indicator for the market, but without addressing the ongoing affordability challenges and the systemic inefficiencies in the transaction process, we will continue to see a gap between supply and completions.
“We are approaching a critical moment for the new government, and this is a key opportunity for the new housing minister and industry stakeholders to work together to streamline the home-moving process and mobilise buyers as the market shows signs of recovery.”
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