Confidence in the UK economy has fallen sharply across all regions among high net worth individuals according to the latest Wealth Index Report from wealth management firm Saltus.
The number of HNWIs in London that feel confident in the UK economy has dropped from 78% to 65%, while the East of England has seen the steepest decline (61%), dropping from 90% to just 29%.
Fewer than half (48%) of HNWIs nationally have confidence in the UK economy, a fall from 84% in August 2024. This is the lowest level of confidence ever recorded by the Saltus Wealth Index Report, which has been tracking HNWIs’ confidence in the UK since 2021.
This picture varies significantly by region, with the East of England (-61%), East Midlands (-52%), South East (-44%), West Midlands (-42%), and Scotland (-41%) experiencing the most significant falls.
Despite the fall, Greater London (65%) remains the most confident region in England and second most confident in the UK after Wales (67%). Just four of the UK’s 11 nations and regions have maintained HNWI confidence above 50%; the others are North East (63%), and Northern Ireland (60%).
Declines in economic confidence (January 2025 v August 2024):
- South East: 25% confidence from 69% (-44%)
- East of England: 29% confidence from 90% (-61%)
- South West: 34% confidence from 66% (-32%)
- East Midlands: 35% confidence from 87% (-52%)
- Yorkshire & The Humber: 41% confidence from 77% (-36%)
- West Midlands: 45% confidence from 87% (-42%)
- Scotland: 46% confidence from 87% (-41%)
- North West: 49% confidence from 69% (-20%)
- Northern Ireland: 60% confidence from 87% (-27%)
- North East: 63% confidence from 90% (-27%)
- Greater London: 65% confidence from 78% (-13%)
- Wales: 67% confidence from 91% (-24%)
The Saltus Wealth Index itself, a measure calculated in partnership with Dr Michael Peacey of the University of Bristol, now stands at 58.2 nationally, a 13% fall from 66.9 when the Index was last published in August 2024. The Index figure today represents a record low since it was first published.
Mike Stimpson, Partner at wealth management firm Saltus, said, “The data paint a stark picture of declining confidence across all regions of the UK. While some areas have historically been more resilient, even these regions are now feeling the effects of economic uncertainty. The sharp declines highlight how concerns about taxation, business growth and cost of living pressures are taking their toll on the UK’s wealth creators.”
HNWIs remain more confident in their own personal finances than the broader economy, but in some regions, confidence levels are also starting to wane. Northern Ireland leads the decline and is now the least confident area in the UK, with a significant drop in personal finance confidence since August 2024 from 93% to 73% today. The East of England has also seen a notable fall from 95% to 82% alongside East Midlands falling from 98% to 85%.
The findings also show that taxation remains a critical concern for HNWIs, with 83% expecting further tax increases in the next 12 months. Respondents anticipate rises in Capital Gains Tax (38%), Income Tax (37%) and Inheritance Tax (35%), with many citing these potential changes as a significant risk to their wealth.
A further key issue is the impact of VAT on private school fees, which has led to a rise in financial strain among HNWIs with children in private education. Over four in ten (42%) private school parents are now considering making changes to their child’s schooling due to the tax, including moving them to a less expensive school or switching to state education.
Stimpson added, “Confidence is critical for growth, and the fact that so many HNWIs feel uncertain about the prospects for the UK economy is concerning. High tax rates, policy uncertainty and personal finance pressures are all contributing to this downward trend. This lack of confidence creates real risk that that investment and entrepreneurship could be stifled, which can only further exacerbate economic challenges.”
