HMRC data shows UK residential property transactions numbered 100,410 in October – the highest figure since November 2022.
The October number represents a 10% rise on September’s 91,690.
Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions also increased by 17% relative to September, to 111,100.
According to Stacy Eden, partner and head of real estate at RSM UK, the uplift in residential property transactions reinforces a positive view of the current market.
“The strong uptick in property transactions could be seen as encouraging,” said Eden, adding that confidence could be returning amid “the government’s focus on housebuilding and home ownership to drive economic growth”.
However, Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, questioned this view of the market in the longer term.
He said: “The widespread availability of sub-4% mortgages and a sense the Budget would be better than feared drove housing market activity in October, resulting in transactions and mortgage approvals hitting their highest level in more than 18 months.
“The risk facing buyers and sellers now is whether Labour’s economic plans will work. Following the Budget, it’s almost impossible to get a sub-4% mortgage and if there is extended upwards pressure on unemployment, inflation and borrowing costs, a period of stagflation could put downwards pressure on house prices and transaction volumes.
“For now, we have revised down our forecasts marginally for UK house prices over the next three years.”
More reaction
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, said:
“The trend of increasing house transactions is likely set to continue as stamp duty increases loom from April 2025.
“With borrowing rates also lower than this time last year, and with more homes coming to the market, this mixture has provided aspiring or current homeowners with the confidence and extra affordability to make their house move.”
Phil Lawford, national account manager at Saffron for Intermediaries, said:
“Seeing an uptick in transactions at this time of year is encouraging, especially following a tough 12 months for the housing market.
“Inflation worries and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates have added pressure, but the recent Bank of England rate cut seems to be making a difference, with swap rates starting to ease and mortgage rates following suit.
“Even with December typically being a quieter month, the market is showing signs of resilience and optimism as we head into the new year.
“It’s worth noting that this data predates the announcements made in the Budget, so it will be interesting to see what impact the changes to stamp duty, in particular, have on transaction levels.
“Since the Budget, cuts to fixed-rate mortgages have come to a halt and we’re not expecting a return to the ultra-low rates of the past ten years any time soon.”
