Bitcoin is rising by around 0.6% but remains below the $114,000 level, while major altcoins are posting notable gains, with Ethereum climbing by nearly 3%.
These gains come as crypto prices remain at critical levels where buyers are still concentrated, leaving the market poised to benefit from any meaningful positive signal on the fundamental side that could revive the upward trend once again.
On the other hand, these early gains could prove extremely fragile if negative shocks re-emerge — similar to the shock of last week’s Producer Price Index figures.
Today, however, the spotlight is on Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, where he is expected to outline his views on inflation and the potential path of monetary policy. In addition, markets are looking for further signals on the expansion of cryptocurrency adoption, particularly with the attendance of several prominent figures in the industry, including Eric Trump, son of President Donald Trump.
Should Powell reiterate a hawkish stance on monetary policy, these fragile gains may quickly reverse into sharp losses, potentially sending Bitcoin down toward the $110,000 level. The technical outlook reinforces this scenario as the broader downtrend remains dominant. Weak fundamentals could accelerate bearish momentum, especially since the latest gains were built amid relatively low liquidity.
The market also remains wary of the upside risks to inflation, which have begun to surface in recent data. According to the preliminary August PMI report from S&P Global, tariffs were a major factor driving costs higher this month at the fastest pace since May, and the second-fastest since January 2023. This came alongside stronger-than-expected growth in both manufacturing and services activity, as well as the highest business sentiment in two months. However, inflation concerns appeared to outweigh the report’s positive elements, contributing to the continued declines in both equities and cryptocurrencies yesterday.
Despite the cautious sentiment, the futures market is attempting to regain some upward momentum. Alongside today’s price gains, more than $1 billion in open interest has been added since yesterday, according to CoinGlass data. The open interest–weighted funding rate has also continued to rise through yesterday, signaling a gradual build-up of bullish pressure. Meanwhile, the pace of large-scale liquidations of long positions has slowed. Taken together, this futures market activity may pave the way for further price recovery, should Powell deliver constructive signals today.
The opposite is also true if Powell doubles down on his hawkish tone, while the recently accumulated long positions would be at risk of liquidation, potentially opening the door for a resumption of the prevailing downtrend.
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