Eli Lilly is set to dominate the GLP-1 market, according to JPMorgan. Analyst Chris Schott said Lilly’s edge comes from its “best-in-class” status, and with help from its direct-to-consumer business, it could outperform expectations as the market for weight loss drugs grows. Data released by its competitor Novo Nordisk Monday showed its next-generation obesity drug failed to match the weight loss of Lilly’s Zepbound. Schott wrote in a Wednesday note that around 1.5 million patients went through direct-to-consumer channels to purchase drugs in the fourth quarter of 2025. That figure will grow, in his view. “We see substantial room for further uptake in both the overweight population (~75mm US adults) and in obese (patients) with poor [insurance] coverage or no coverage through their employers,” he said. Schott expects that the market will expand by 2030 to around 8 million GLP-1 patients alone using cash payments to purchase the drug, with Eli Lilly’s direct-to-consumer platform LillyDirect set to benefit from the trend. He added that there is potential upside to this estimate as Lilly’s oral drug comes to market. According to Schott, Eli Lilly will be a disproportionate winner when Medicare coverage of GLP-1s begins in April. He expects around 4.5 million patients on the insurance plan will use the drug by 2030. “Net net, LLY remains one of our top picks with potential for material upside to Street numbers over the next several years,” he wrote. LLY 6M mountain LLY six-month chart.
