Jefferies thinks it’s time to leave Dollar Tree behind. The bank downgraded shares of the discount retailer to underperform from hold. Analyst Corey Tarlowe also slashed his price target to $70 from $110, signaling a decline of 20% from Monday’s close. Tarlowe emphasized that the current risk-reward balance looks unfavorable heading into Dollar Tree’s upcoming Investor Day. Specifically, the analyst cited “operational complexity” as a major headwind to the stock. “A business that was once simple now faces structural change and operational complexity that are difficult to manage. Macro headwinds, rising competition, and margin pressure add further risk; and ahead of the Investor Day on 10/15, we are downgrading DLTR to Underperform,” he wrote. “The event was launched during a period of stronger business momentum, but recent softening in data makes mgmt vulnerable to questions about NT performance.” Meanwhile, the company’s shift into items that fall into the $5 to $7 range has also introduced complexity for stores and customers, lowering the consumer experience by “eroding simplicity.” Tarlowe noted that traffic has decelerated while spend per trip has turned negative. Dollar Tree is also falling flat against its peers, with its price hikes no longer offering a particular competitive advantage. Competitors are also beating Dollar Tree out when it comes to nationwide store proximity. “DG is reinforcing its value proposition by expanding its $1 assortment to 2,000 SKUs and rolling out fresh produce in 5,400+ stores, while Walmart leverages scale and omnichannel, and Five Below accelerates growth with a treasure-hunt model,” Tarlowe said. “DLTR’s differentiation is eroding, leaving its multi-price strategy exposed.” DLTR YTD mountain DLTR YTD chart Shares of Dollar Tree have rallied 17% this year. However, they fell 4% following the downgrade. Analysts are split on the stock. Of the 28 who cover it, 11 rate it a buy or strong buy, per LSEG. However, another 15 have a hold rating on it, while two others rate it underperform. ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
