The autumn bounce in the housing market that estate agents had been hoping for has fallen flat.
Despite indications that inflation and interest rates may be heading in a more positive direction, fresh data from Landmark’s newly released Q3 Residential Property Trends report shows a subdued market as the usual post-summer uplift failed to materialise.
Continued market uncertainty and affordability issues had a continued impact on Sold Subject to Contract (SSTC) levels in the last quarter, with September seeing the biggest negative variation to the pre-COVID benchmark of 2019 so far this year at 49% down vs 2019 levels.
Similarly, this muted cross-market picture can be seen at valuation stage, with valuation volumes failing to improve (38% down on 2019 levels in September) – further demonstrating the affordability constraints home-movers are facing.
However, despite the overall picture of a flatter market, supply remains relatively healthy as we head into Q4. Listings were 3% higher than 2019 benchmark levels in September.
Key findings from the report
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SSTC volumes in Q3 ’23 tracked 36% below Q3‘19.
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Search order volumes in Q3 ’23 recovered slightly over the quarter but were still 36% down on Q3 ‘19 volumes in September.
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Completions levels in Q3 ‘23 were 4% higher vs Q2 ‘23 but 35% down compared to Q3 ‘19.
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SSTC volumes in Q3 ’23 tracked 36% below levels seen in Q3‘19.
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Although SSTC volumes rose by 6% in August ‘23 on the month prior, this was a reflection of an unusual drop in SSTC levels seen during August ‘19.
Property Search to SSTC
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Supply is in arelatively positive position with levels 3% lower in July ’23 vs ’19 and 3% higher in Sept ’23 vs ’19.
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However, demand is struggling with volumes 38% lower in July ’23 vs ‘19 and 39% lower in Sept ’23 vs ‘19.
Mortgage valuations to approvals
Simon Brown, CEO of Landmark Information Group, said: “Amidst the ongoing challenges of the economic landscape, our data paints a picture of an unusually muted yet stable market. The post-summer bounce back we would usually expect to provide a boost going into Q4 hasn’t yet happened, leaving the market in a remarkably flat position.
“While this stabilisation means an end to the volatility of previous quarters, it also leaves us in unchartered waters, with few in the industry remembering such a prolonged period of stagnation. However, we are operating in a resilient market, meaning growth will eventually return. For now, we wait to see what the external landscape brings in Q4.”
