Citi thinks it’s time to to buy shares of Liberty Media Formula One . The investment bank upgraded shares of Formula One Group to buy from neutral, maintaining its $71 price target. This implies a potential upside of more than 17% from the stock’s closing price of $60.34 on Thursday afternoon. It’s been a highly volatile year for shares of Formula One, which are overall up 17.7% in that time. Over the past three months, however, they are down 6.7%. Analyst Jason Bazinet cited two key drivers behind the stock’s volatility: growing skepticism around the Las Vegas Grand Prix and rising optimism around a potential deal with Apple. The race is slated for 1 a.m. ET on Nov. 19. FWONA YTD mountain FWONA ytd chart Upon the introduction of the Las Vegas Grand Prix, Formula One raised its capex outlook to $400 million from its previous $270 million, escalating investor skepticism around the race. But Bazinet called these concerns “overblown,” noting that the upcoming event acts as an opportunity to ultimately grow Formula One’s U.S. presence. “Based on our estimate of Vegas’s race economics, we believe F1’s new capex guide extended the payback period by ~3 years,” he wrote. “Ultimately, we are not overly concerned by the extra capex, as the Vegas event could help drive U.S. engagement by bolstering media rights revenue.” Bazinet added that following WWE’s disappointing deal, investors have grown overly bearish on U.S. sports rights renewals, although this negative sentiment is not applicable to Formula One for two reasons. First, F1’s total U.S. rights only comprise 3% of the company’s total revenue versus 38% of TKO’s. Second, Formula One’s U.S. viewership has been consistently growing, while the latter has come under pressure. This optimism is supported Apple’s reported interest in buying F1’s global TV rights for $2 billion, the analyst added. “As such, if these reports prove true, we see incremental upside ~10% from prevailing levels,” Bazinet said. “We view the relative risk-reward associated Apple’s prospective interest in F1’s global media rights as attractive at prevailing levels.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
