An expansion into the U.S. makes tobacco company Philip Morris International a buying opportunity for investors, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Bonnie Herzog upgraded shares to buy from neutral, saying the launch of a line of smoke-free electronic cigarette products in the U.S. will drive growth for the company. “We see a more favorable risk/reward as we expect PM’s long-term growth algo will accelerate 1-2pts over the next several years, with a key driver being the roll out of iQOS in the US market,” Herzog wrote in a Wednesday note. The Iqos device heats tobacco instead of burning it. In doing so, users get a rush of nicotine from the tobacco, but don’t consume as many toxins as they do when smoking a conventional cigarette. “We performed an in-depth analysis of the US nicotine market (which increases PM’s [total addressable market] by 60%) and, in our base case scenario, we believe PM can comfortably reach a 10% share of the US combustible & heat-not-burn market by 2030,” Herzog added. The analyst pointed out the tobacco company’s deal with Swedish Match, which “unlocks access to the world’s largest and most lucrative nicotine market for PM.” The company would have the leading positions in two out of three major smoke-free categories in the U.S. Further, Iqos is allowed to sell a menthol variant of its product and could pick up new consumers as the regulators crack down on other tobacco products that use that flavor. Shares of Philip Morris are little changed this year, after rising more than 12% in 2022. Still, the analyst raised her price target by $25 to $120, which implies shares can climb roughly 18% from Tuesday’s closing price. The tobacco stock was up more than 1% in Wednesday premarket trading. The stock was upgraded to buy by Jefferies last week . —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
