Nearly half of Rishi Sunak’s cabinet ministers are predicted to lose their seat in Thursday’s General Election, analysts at OLBG can reveal.
Both Penny Mordaunt and Jeremy Hunt are those in peril as Thursday’s vote nears, with both facing threats from Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively.
By converting betting odds to percentages, OLBG have produced an ‘implied probability’, with those greater than 50% being ‘odds-on’ to win.
Leader of the House of Commons Mordaunt is currently MP for Portsmouth North, but is projected to have just a 36.4% chance of winning, with Labour predicted to take the seat at an implied probability of 71.4%.
Hunt, meanwhile, is set to lose his seat after running in the newly formed Godalming and Ash constituency in Surrey. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has just a 23.1% chance, compared to the Liberal Democrat candidate Paul Follows (83.3%).
Good news for Sunak is that he is considered one of the likeliest Cabinet ministers to retain their constituency, with a probability of 73.3% to retain the rural North Yorkshire seat of Richmond and Northallerton. Most seats predicted to be lost by Cabinet members are projected Labour & Liberal Democrat gains, with Nigel Farage’s Reform only predicted to mount a credible challenge in the Louth & Horncastle and Basildon & Billericay seats.
Minister for Women and Equalities, Kemi Badenoch, who is bookies’ favourite to be the next Tory leader after Rishi Sunak, has been calculated as the safest Cabinet minister, with a 90% chance of retaining her North-West Essex constituency.
Meanwhile, Transport Secretary Grant Schapps is perceived to be most at risk, with his position as Welwyn Hatfield MP under considerable threat from Labour’s Andrew Lewin, and he has been given just a 14.3% chance of victory.
