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Inflation cooled in August and fell to its lowest level since February 2021, which was around the time the consumer price index began to climb during the pandemic era.
This broad trend in the U.S. economy — a declining but still-positive rate of inflation — is known as “disinflation.” It means that, in aggregate, the average prices of goods and services are rising, just more slowly.
However, there are also pockets of “deflation.” Their inflation rate is negative, meaning prices are falling.
Deflation has largely been happening for physical goods like cars and household appliances, though it has also appeared in categories such as gasoline and various groceries over the past year, according to the consumer price index.
That said, consumers shouldn’t expect — or root for — a broad and sustained fall in prices across the U.S. economy. That generally doesn’t happen unless there’s a recession, economists said.
‘A huge shift in demand’
Prices for “core” goods — commodities excluding those related to food and energy — have deflated by about 2% since August 2023, on average, according to CPI data.
They fell 0.2% during the month, from July to August 2024.
The dynamic of falling goods prices has largely been due to a “normalization” of pre-pandemic supply-and-demand trends, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
Demand for physical goods soared in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as consumers were confined to their homes and couldn’t spend on things such as concerts, travel or dining out. Household also had more discretionary income due to the pullback on spending coupled with federal aid.
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“We saw a huge shift in demand, in terms of the type of things people were spending on, where you weren’t going out as much,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.
The health crisis also snarled global supply chains, meaning goods weren’t hitting the shelves as quickly as consumers wanted them.
Such supply-and-demand dynamics drove up prices.
However, those economic contortions have largely eased and prices have deflated as a result, economists said.
Where prices have deflated
For example, prices have declined by about 5% for furniture and bedding and 3% for appliances since August 2023, according to CPI data.
They’ve also fallen for tools, hardware and outdoor equipment (-3%), toys (-3%) and apparel like men’s suits and outerwear (-10%), women’s outerwear (-9%) and footwear (-1%).
Prices for new and used vehicles have fallen by 1% and 10%, respectively, since August 2023. Car and truck rental prices have deflated about 8%.
Car prices were among the first to surge when the economy reopened broadly early in 2021, amid a shortage of semiconductor chips essential for manufacturing.
Recent declines in car prices are largely due to “the inventory picture being more improved in the overall vehicle space,” House said. Higher financing costs have also reduced consumer demand, economists said.
Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar’s strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. This makes it less expensive for U.S. companies to import items from overseas, since the dollar can buy more.
Long-term forces such as globalization have also helped, by increasing imports of more lower-priced goods from China, economists said.
Airline fares have declined about 1% over the past year, according to CPI data.
The drop is partly attributable to a decline in jet fuel prices, Capital Economics’ Brown explained.
Average aviation jet fuel prices are down about 21% from last year, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Grocery prices have fallen for items such as apples, potatoes, ham, coffee, rice, seafood and bananas, according to CPI data. Each grocery item has its own supply-and-demand dynamics that can influence pricing, economists said.
Other categories’ deflationary dynamics may be happening only on paper.
For example, in the CPI data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics controls for quality improvements over time. Electronics such as televisions, cellphones and computers continually get better, meaning consumers generally get more for the same amount of money.
That shows up as a price decline in the CPI data.
