Here’s why Rivian’s (RIVN) stock is down today even after its big Q4 milestone

Rivian (RIVN) shares hit a new yearly low on Monday, dropping nearly 10%. Despite achieving its first gross profit in Q4, Rivian’s stock is taking a beating due to mixed analyst opinions. Here’s what they’re saying.

Last week, Rivian released its fourth quarter 2024 earnings, announcing a gross profit of $170 million. Although still a relatively small number, it’s a massive $776 million improvement from Q4 2023 and Rivian’s first positive gross profit.

After shutting down its manufacturing plant in Normal, IL, last April for upgrades and launching its second-generation R1 vehicles, CEO RJ Scaringe said the company is seeing “meaningful” cost reductions.

“This quarter, we achieved positive gross profit and removed $31,000 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle delivered in Q4 2024 relative to Q4 2023,” Scaringe explained last week after releasing fourth-quarter earnings.

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Rivian built 49,476 vehicles last year and delivered 51,579. In 2025, the company expects slightly fewer deliveries, projecting between 46,000 and 51,000 due to external factors, including changing government policies. It also expects lower EDV deliveries for Amazon after higher output in Q4.

Some Wall St analysts are also concerned about policy changes under the Trump Administration. On Monday, Bank of America analysts downgraded Rivian stock to an Underperform rating from Neutral following its Q4 results.

The analysts also cut Rivian’s stock price target to $10 from $13, saying the 2025 delivery forecast was “softer than expected” and “there could be more downside risk if policy changes are enacted.”

Rivian stock hit with a downgrade after Q4 earnings

Bank of America warned that new competition from Lucid (LCID), GM’s Chevy, and VW’s Scout could impact sales projections over the next few years.

Meanwhile, the memo did say Rivian is still “one of the most viable” EV startups and the joint venture with Volkswagen is “complicating earnings forecasts for at least the next four years” for forecasting. Rivian finalized its EV joint venture with VW in the fourth quarter, worth up to $5.8 billion, of which Rivian will get $3.5 billion over the next few years.

Part of Rivian’s lower 2025 delivery forecast is due to plant upgrades coming at the end of the year for its more affordable R2 SUV. Starting at $45,000, the R2 will be nearly half the cost of the current R1S and R1T.

Rivian plans to begin R2 production early next year in Normal but expects output to significantly ramp up at its new EV plant in Georgia.

Despite closing on its loan agreement for the US DOE for up to $6.6 billion last month, the funding is up in the air with Trump threatening to freeze federal loans.

“Given the Trump Administration’s focus on cost-cutting, we believe there could be a risk to RIVN’s $6.6 billion Department of Energy loan closed by the Biden Administration on Jan 16,” Bank of America analysts said.

Despite the downgrade, several analysts upgraded the stock. Needham raised its price target from $14 to $17, while Wells Fargo bumped theirs up to $14 from $11 with an “Equal-Weight” rating.

Rivian’s stock was down over 8% on Monday following the downgrade. At around $11.90, however, Rivian shares are still up 11% over the past year.