There’s still value to be found among renewable energy stocks despite a rout, according to Bank of America. Leading renewable stock NextEra Energy Partners trimmed its growth forecast earlier this week, sparking a sell-off in the cleantech sector that has lasted for several days. Its stock tumbled about 27% so far this week, while its parent NextEra Energy is down 15% over the same period. BofA analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith said the event has caused a “collapse in confidence” in NextEra and stoked fears that higher rates will dampen demand for renewable energy projects. “Rates have indeed moved higher through the same period and utilities and renewables are rates sensitive, but the collapse in confidence in NextEra — the world’s largest renewable developer — has precipitated a draconian view for the outlook of renewables as an asset class, and the associated returns,” Dumoulin-Smith said in a Thursday note. The analyst still expects to see “significant utility scale growth in renewables in the coming years” and contends that returns are still viable despite higher interest rates, even with the uncertainty as to when they’ll decline. “Indeed, renewables are rates sensitive but a near doubling in PPA [purchase price agreement] prices from 2021 to today shows that the cost of capital pain has been universal,” Dumoulin-Smith said. “Rates pressures have been and will likely continue to be passed through.” With the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) down nearly 10% over the past month, there could be some stocks worth buying. (NextEra Energy is the largest holding within the XLU.) The analyst said he prefers solar equipment providers that provide utility-scale equipment such as First Solar , Array Technologies and Nextracker , saying these companies should reap the benefits of improved growth next year. Within the utility sector, his top defensive pick is Consolidated Edison . BofA maintains a $283 per share price target on solar panel manufacturer FirstSolar, which equates to more than 86% upside from Wednesday’s $151.82 close. The analyst noted that the company is still in need of reinvestment, but can maintain a “near-term competitive positioning” thanks to sector simulation from the Inflation Reduction Act. FirstSolar stock has ticked down roughly 2% from the start of the year. FSLR YTD mountain FirstSolar stock. The firm’s $45 per share price target on Nextracker represents more than 26% upside from Wednesday’s $35.67 close. Dumoulin-Smith said shares could rise even higher if solar panel projects gain steam or if the cost of steel and freight transportation meaningfully decline. Shares have ticked up more than 9% from the start of 2023. NXT YTD mountain Nextracker stock. The firm maintains a $30 price target on Array Technologies and $96 for ConEd. The forecasts represent more than 47% upside for Array and roughly 14% for ConEd. BofA said Consolidated Edison has usually shown above-peer growth and has “a uniquely clean balance sheet.” ED YTD mountain Consolidated Edison stock. A normalizing business outlook in 2024 will lift Array stock, while ConEd will benefit from capital appreciation across the utilities sector. ConEd stock has slipped about 12% from the start of the year, while shares of Array are down nearly 2%. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
